Your friend asks if the bride is beautiful, and you don't think she is. You:
- Say Yes 1.1K
- Say No 142
- Deflect or not answer 425
- See results 240
Zvi Mowshowitz
Verified account This account is verified. Learn more@TheZvi
Blogger primarily on AI and AI x-risk but also other things at Don't Worry About the Vase (SS/WP/LW), founding Balsa Research to fix policy.
323 Following 45K Followers 21K Posts
Latest posts 5
Yes. I emphasize that applying to SFF during the 'off season' is a much better plan than waiting, even more so than you think, including for reasons that are fiddly and not obvious. Apply early.
Be advised: Due to the way that the Survival & Flourishing Fund does speculation grants, it is advantageous to your application if you apply far away from a round's deadline. E.g. right now. See below for projects I'd be interested in making speculation grants to.⬇️View quoted post on X
I feel like I kept saying this and people kept telling me that it was too early for that and I was reading too much into things, when the whole thing felt pretty obvious.
This report shares our three subjective conclusions about risk:View quoted post on X
1. We believe that, as of Oct 2026, the pace of capability growth on well-specified tasks is likely about 2x what it was from Mar 2024 to Oct 2025. We’re highly uncertain and would not be surprised by 1.3x–3x.
