Tim Alberta

Was thinking about this last night. If I’m a Republican, having just watched Talarico romp by double digits in Texas — a state without which Rs have zero path to 270 — I might just take my chances with a national popular vote.

National exit (sample: 79,668) -- Importance of issues to your vote:

GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION
Crucial/Major - 90%
Minor/No factor - 10%

COST OF LIVING
Crucial/Major - 89%
Minor/No factor - 11%

IRAN WAR
Crucial/Major - 74%
Minor/No factor - 26%

IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Crucial/Major - 73%
Minor/No factor - 27%

AI & DATA CENTERS
Crucial/Major - 56%
Minor/No factor - 44%

One final nugget -- among all PA voters (sample size 4,360):

Condition of the nation’s economy:

Excellent/Good - 26%
Not good/Poor - 72%

Shapiro's handling of the economy:

Approve - 61%
Disapprove - 39%

Man...parsing the PA exits...Josh Shapiro won:

48% of non-college whites
39% of rural voters
29% of white evangelicals
46% of military vets
60% of union households
36% of non-MAGA Rs

Obvious caveats apply. But if a Dem prez nominee sniffs those numbers, we're talking 430+ EVs.

For those who don’t understand exit polling:

We have no data to suggest that only 17% of white evangelicals voted in 2026.

Instead, the exit samples show that white evangelicals made up 17% of the overall electorate.

White evangelicals are among the highest-propensity voters in America. It’s possible they turned out in lower numbers this year than in past elections; it’s also possible other groups turned out in higher numbers.

In either case, the notion that only 17% of white evangelicals voted—which is being used to shame pastors, churches, etc—is laughable to anyone who actually knows this stuff.