Tyler Bindi

Vacation towns are about to get decimated.

Start in the 1960s. Somebody's grandparents bought a place like this on a middle class income. One earner, a decent job, a cabin on the water.

Their kids did a little better. Upper middle class, bigger house in the suburbs, and they bought a second home too. That was still normal.

Then look at now. Today the median first time buyer is 40 years old, an all time high, and first timers down to 21% of the market, an all time low.

People are hitting middle age before they close on a starter house, and plenty never do.

So the chain breaks right here. Three generations in, the handoff stops.

Now run it forward. The boomers own a staggering amount of this stuff, and over the next decade it will all come to market in the same window.

Lake houses, beach cottages, ski condos, desert casitas.

The heirs mostly don't want it. Insurance on anything near water, fire or hail has gone vertical. Property taxes reset on transfer in some states and just keep climbing in the others.

The dues on a resort condo run like a car payment and half these towns have cracked down on short term rentals, so the "it pays for itself" math doesn't pencil anymore either.

And an inherited house rarely stays inherited.

Somebody always wants the money instead.

So it gets listed. Usually right after probate clears.

Massive inventory is coming. But buyers aren't.

Get ready for these prices to go to rock bottom.

Every listing broker knows this call.
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A buyer reaches out on a deal. They love it and want to make an offer.
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Then, at the end of the call: "Oh, my son has his real estate license so he’ll be representing me."
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Sometimes it's a family friend. Sometimes it's a cousin who mostly sells condos.
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Whoever it is hasn't read the OM and doesn't know the product. But they "need" a piece of the commission, so now they're part of the deal.
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What that buyer doesn't realize is what this costs them later.
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Six months from now, something great crosses that listing broker's desk. Off-market, priced right, exactly what that buyer has been looking for.
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Guess who gets the first call?

The buyer who makes the deals easy, and works directly with the listing broker.

Not the one who loops in their ex-wife's brother-in-law's third cousin twice removed so they can take fee.
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You don't just lose one deal this way. You lose the first crack at everything after it, and for an active buyer that adds up to millions over a career.
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The most successful buyers do the opposite. They call the listing broker directly, let them handle both sides, and ask for help getting the best deal possible.
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Then everyone else pulls the comps and wonders how that buyer keeps getting all the “good deals.”
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This is how.

It cannot be overstated how much your quality of life decreases when it gets dark at 5pm instead of 7pm

Was in the Pacific Palisades this morning talking to a small business owner in his store

Somehow we got to talking about the LA mayor race

We both agreed the two options are terrible, and Spencer Pratt got robbed

Mid-conversation his phone rings

He pulls it out of his pocket, turns the screen toward me and goes "speaking of the devil”

Caller ID: Spencer Pratt

"What's up man, I'm thinking about swinging by the store later. You gonna be there?"

You can’t script this stuff

My dream job has always been to be a Spirit Halloween leasing broker

Crush deals for 3 months, fill every vacant big box in America, make cash hand over fist

Then spend the next 9 months on a beach somewhere

Spirit signs 1,500+ short-term leases every year

That’s more stores than Costco, Apple, and In-N-Out…combined

Spirit did nearly $1B in sales last year and basically all of it came in September and October

Now that’s what I like to call “lease-life balance”