Tyron Surmon

@TyronSurmon

Head of Research at @findoutnowuk findoutnow.co.uk

London, United Kingdom findoutnow.co.uk Joined January 2022

363 Following 266 Followers 989 Posts

Latest posts 5

Worth saying that the contact rate for this survey has gone from ~75% pre-pandemic to ~45% today. And those who they can't contact for the survey, are very likely those more likely to experience crime, as they are way more urban etc

Fraser Nelson Verified account @FraserNelson Oct 22

@mcmoggy80840 Hi Annie, that’s what the Crime Survey is for. Most crimes are unreported so Thatcher brought it in to ask 30,000 people about their experience to gauge a better figure. Hospital admissions for attacks show same trend…
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Tyron Surmon @TyronSurmon Aug 16

Good example of misleading polling. I don’t doubt two thirds have sympathy for refugees. But most don’t consider channel crossers to be genuine. And any plainly worded poll question shows enormous majorities for us taking in less than we do now and being stricter

LBC @LBC Aug 16

‘The public cares more about refugees than Westminster wants to believe’

✍️ Flora Alexander for LBC Opinion
lbc.co.uk/article/public…
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Tyron Surmon @TyronSurmon Jul 16

On this note, Irish translations often a farce. This a v good read from a Gaeltacht speaker d-nb.info/1218373504/34 complaining how most translators are non-native and they just imitate English. E.g. dental hygentist wrongly being translated as "toothed hygenist"

The Irish Politics Newsletter Verified account @IrishPoliticsNL Jul 14

This is shocking.
At an EU Foreign Affairs Committee meeting, Lynn Boylan lamented that it was “a pity we can’t use our own language.” When it was pointed out that she could, in fact, speak Irish, she backtracked almost instantly: "I wasn’t prepared, so I’ll use English."

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Tyron Surmon @TyronSurmon Jun 25

6 point bump for Lab and moved into second place (for first time since last Oct)

That being said, Reform still ahead. And given a honeymoon for Burnham right now, imagine this bump likely to go down over next few weeks / months, unless something structural changes

Find Out Now @FindoutnowUK Jun 25

First VI poll since Keir Starmer's resignation

Find Out Now voting intention
🟦 Reform UK: 24% (-3)
🔴 Labour: 21% (+6)
🔵 Conservatives: 18% (-)
🟢 Greens: 15% (-2)
🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

Implied turnout: 56%

Changes from 17th June
[Find Out Now, 24-25th June, N=2,140]

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Tyron Surmon @TyronSurmon Jun 19

Recalled past vote is going to get less and less accurate, when we have a party system in such a state of flux. Graph I made last year on this

max tempers Verified account @maxtempers Jun 19

Interesting bit on how the raw voting intention figures for most of the pollsters were much closer to the actual result than the published post-weighting figures - likely because people misreported how they voted in 2024 to pollsters.

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