@VminVsky
Preseen is now available on @Idealab.ai to put forecasts in the hands of founders deciding what business to start.
Idealab.ai makes more than 1.2 million business ideas freely searchable, drawing on @Bill_Gross's 50-year entrepreneurial experience.View quoted post on X
James Evans (@profjamesevans) has joined Preseen as Chief Scientist.View quoted post on X
He's a @UChicago professor and founding director of Knowledge Lab and the Chicago Center for Computational Social Science (C3S2), studying how people and AI generate knowledge and anticipate discoveries.
preseen.com Will AI cause human extinction by December 31, 2100? This question asks whether artificial intelligence will cause a catastrophe on or before December 31, 2100 that kills more than 99% of the human population. Despite the use of the word "extinction" i… “One of the main lessons to come out of Tetlock’s work is that the best generalist forecasters are usually better at telling the future than domain-specific experts, even when it comes to those experts’ areas of study. This is because forecasting itself is its own science that requires a unique way of thinking, and a person having a great deal of knowledge about a field is no guarantee that they have good epistemological habits. If you’re going to ask, for example, whether American democracy is falling apart, an expert might start by making a superficial comparison between the modern US and the Weimar Republic. Someone with a forecasting mindset would be more likely to begin with a question like “how often do advanced democracies slide into dictatorships?” The answer is not very often.”View quoted post on X
Important reminder from @RichardHanania that domain experts are not the best at predicting what happens, even in their own domains.
open.substack.com/pub/richardhan…
blog.preseen.com Predicting Science and Technology: Preseen Partners with UChicago's Knowledge Lab Technologies that remake the world rarely announce themselves. 
