Wharton Moneyball

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Making sense (& nonsense) of the committee using our simple model. Best fit is 85/15 Most Deserving/Best, a big shift toward Most Deserving compared to last week. Top 7 + Indiana are a close fit. TEN & UK are off big - at 85/15 we don't see them close enough to honor H2H. And BYU still baffling.

Strong

College football's current "Most Deserving". How do undefeateds UCLA & Utah compare to 1-loss UGA and 2-loss Bama? We find those records *equally* ~1.5 wins above what we'd expect from the CFB bubble team (12th best). We use the @ralphDrussoATH-inspired Wins Above Bubble, but what we hope is that you use *something* (e.g., ESPN's SOR) consistently. HT @PDawg206

BYU at #9 is a real head scratcher. Here's our best fit of the committee, at 65% "Most deserving" / 35% "Best". Not perfect, but very highly correlated with the committee. BYU is not close to the field. There are a bunch of teams jumbled together and the Cougars ain't one of them.