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Harry Halem

@WarIntellectual

@YorktownInst, @LSEIRDept. Author of Arsenal of Democracy (Hoover Press, November 2025), Breaking the New Axis (Naval Institute Press, April 2026)
Joined January 2012
3.9K Following 708 Followers 1.2K Posts

Latest posts 5

Harry Halem @WarIntellectual
This story is fascinating, mainly because of what it tells us about Russian negotiations. It’s a remarkable prelude to Kushner and Witkoff. The real question is why release this story now?/1
max seddon Verified account @maxseddon Oct 24
At one of the tensest points in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, two Americans teamed up with a former GDR spy to stop nuclear war. They just needed to tell Putin.

On the cover of @FTMag this week, one of the most extraordinary stories I've ever reported:

ft.com/content/dcb57f…
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Harry Halem @WarIntellectual
An alternative explanation is that the Saudis don’t want to do this themselves for fear of Iranian retaliation. And why would they, after six months of no peace no war, mixed messaging from the US, and a burnt bridge with the UAE?
John Jackson Verified account @hissgoescobra Sep 11
Something very strange is going on with the Saudi Air Force. They have 250 modern aircraft, including Typhoons and F-15Es, but they’re incapable of launching airstrikes on their own border? This bears watching closely.
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Harry Halem @WarIntellectual
This argument contains a lot of truth but misses WHY Ukraine’s specific system exists. ZSU divides between Force Management (CGS) and C2 (CINC) in a manner not seen in the post Soviet space. That choice matters as much as civmil culture. /1
Kirill S. @kirlant Jul 21
Fedorov's dismissal and his feud with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi is not a unique incident. It's the latest result of Ukraine's disbalanced civil-military relations that persisted for years before the full-scale invasion. A recent academic paper by Renz & Whitmore proves this 1/12
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Harry Halem @WarIntellectual
This NYT piece on US Ukraine-Russia policy in 2025 provides a useful opportunity to take stock. Its blind spots help us think about trajectories in 2026. The US made two mistakes, overestimating Russian openness and Ukrainian capacity./1 nytimes.com/interactive/20…
www.nytimes.com The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership As President Trump sought a peace deal and Vladimir V. Putin sought victory, factions in the White House and Pentagon bled the Ukrainian war effort.
Harry Halem @WarIntellectual
Thanks to @TXNatSecReview for publishing my piece with @eyckfreymann, the brilliant co-author of our book "Arsenal of Democracy." We locked our book's text this summer and published in November. A few thoughts on the second half of 2025./1
The margin of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific is rapidly shrinking, according to Eyck Freymann (@eyckfreymann) and Harry Halem (@WarIntellectual).

They argue that the US and its allies must urgently revitalize the defense industrial base to field capabilities at scale and speed.
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