Warren Pies

Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut.

Would put the market at 5,200 by May...

First time speaking w/ the great @ScottWapnerCNBC was a blast!

Post-midterms, the question is whether the bull market can continue without semis participating.

This year owning the S&P 500 on days the semi industry is positive has produced a 70% gain. Semi down days SP500 has lost 34%.

No industry has dictated index performance this much.

Enjoyed the conversation.

Of note, we discuss why a "bluenami" is positive for hyperscalers (once the dust settles).

Ignore the consensus opinion on midterm seasonality for now.

“Bluenami” is not an immediate buy.

Excerpt from 10/26 @3F_Research report…

Despite the (deserved) nervousness in the market, the S&P 500's three-month trading range has compressed to ~3.5% (closing basis - historic average range ~10%).

This is below the 1st percentile historically (i.e. extremely narrow range).