Lonis

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@_Lonis_

Investing for RSI @ cambriancapital.ai. Advising @ProsperaGlobal. Uneducated. Created Godmode (first AI agent w 1M+ users) | @andysz

SF Loniss.com Joined November 2017

1.1K Following 18K Followers 732 Posts

Latest posts 5

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Lonis @_Lonis_ Oct 13

AGI is coming, and hundreds of AI supply chain oligopolies trade at only 1–5x revenue & 5–15x earnings

Short AI timelines could nuke software moats. Key physical chokepoints still remain

Launching Cambrian: an AI hedge fund seeded with ~$70M. Backed by Metaplanet & Jaan Tallinn

Lonis @_Lonis_ Oct 30

The RSI loop is closing, yet the market keeps getting more mispriced:

1/ High-beta AI names had their worst month in 4 years

2/ AI token spend is exploding, but as a percentage of opex/payroll, it's still effectively zero & has orders of magnitude to go

Lonis @_Lonis_ Oct 27

It’s crazy how rough the timing was for people entering memory in July: the same bet had 2–140x less upside than today, due to lower prices and IV

Each box shows how many times your money the call option returns if DRAM is at that price (left axis) on that date (top)

Lonis @_Lonis_ Oct 14

On short AI timelines, most portfolios (incl the S&P) could get nuked, as rising interest rates would compress multiples, and most gains would be concentrated in a few AI model and hardware companies.

MTS @MTSlive Oct 14

Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ argues that most investors are unknowingly positioned to lose money if AGI arrives sooner than expected, even those holding the S&P 500:

"Most of the assets most people hold is actually not only not exposed to short AI timelines, but are actually negatively exposed."

"If AI comes very quickly, it will be very bad for a lot of venture portfolios. Obviously bonds will do very poorly. But also S&P might do quite poorly, because we expect interest rates to rise, and so multiples will come way down."

"Currently, multiples are around 20 times earnings, and that can easily go down to 10 or less."

"We’re trying to build a portfolio that takes this scenario seriously of short AI timelines, and figure out what are the assets that actually will do well in that world."

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Lonis @_Lonis_ Apr 24

We just crossed 500 companies incorporated in Próspera - and growing 140% YoY in Q1.