@adamheimlich
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www.adamlovesadtech.com Platforms Pick 7. October 27th, 2026 The difference If you ask a few thousand people to pick a number between 1 and 10, and chart their responses, you get a lumpy curve. People avoid the ends and the middle. They... I think we can reduce this down to three metrics:View quoted post on X
Revenue: $4.6B
COGS: $7.3B
Anticipated infra obligations: $520B
These numbers just make no sense. This business doesn't have PMF if they can't sell it at a number that covers their cost to serve (and that's before amortizing $520B of compute obligations, allocating training costs etc). They're selling $1.00 for $0.60 and we think they're worth $2T?
Somebody make the valuation make sense to me. I'm not a doomer by any means, but I'm a business person and this quite literally does not compute. cc @edzitron
Unless there's some weird anomaly where if you lose enough billions, you actually get more attractive to investors b/c how would a trash company raise enough money to lose that much? I guess VCs have invested with worse theses so maybe...
