Alexandra Prokopenko

My forthcoming book From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite is now officially with @HurstPublishers.
It’s about loyalty and survival at the top of Putin’s system. How and why Russian elites adapted to the war
🔗 hurstpublishers.com/book/from-sove…

Delighted to see From Sovereigns to Servants cited in the conclusion of Professsor @DrRadchenko Powerplay, on how Russia used oil and gas as a weapon. His book is available to pre-order (and highly recommended), and mine is finally out in English and ready to ship

An absolute must-read by brilliant @maxseddon on how an American lawyer, a banker, and a former spy hatched a plan to prevent nuclear Armageddon planned by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
ft.com/content/dcb57f…

Some quick takes on Russia's morning government reshuffle: no change, of course. This is rearranging the furniture, not renovating the house. The deputy prime ministers responsible for the war and asset redistribution, Manturov and Patrushev, kept their posts. Looking for a policy shift or clues about the war or property redistribution in this reshuffle is pointless.

The real story is Grigorenko’s departure. The head of the government apparatus is the key administrative post: every document and instruction passes through it. Grigorenko is an old and important ally of PM Mishustin. Okladnikova is a strong finance professional with long experience working across government bodies, but she carries far less bureaucratic weight. For now, this looks like a weakening of Mishustin, and where Grigorenko lands will tell a lot. One caveat: Grigorenko had tense relations with practically everyone in the cabinet, so his exit may also be a trade Mishustin was willing to make.

Someone who knows Okladnikova describes her as a good communicator with a strong grasp of how the decision-making system works. She is from Krasnoyarsk and has spent her whole career in public service, first in the regional administration, then at the Finance Ministry from 2012.

Trutnev. He has had a long-running conflict with Mishustin. Reportedly, he is moving to a quieter role in the presidential administration.

Transport sector reshuffles as expected. The Rotenbergs keep their grip on the sector. Savelyev went to the Duma, and Nikitin takes his place. Yadrov knows the bureaucratic world well: he started as an air traffic controller at Vnukovo-2 and quite literally landed government planes and oligarchs’ private jets.

Siluanov. Combining the posts of deputy prime minister and finance minister is a long-standing tradition: Kudrin held that exact position until his resignation, and Siluanov did the same in 2018–2020, then as first deputy prime minister. The jokes about him as a future prime minister have already started, but I don’t buy it: this is a return to a familiar arrangement, not preparation for a move. The more interesting question is how responsibilities will be divided, which should be announced within a week. The key thing to watch is whether Siluanov picks up the economy as a whole, currently overseen by Novak. If he does, that’s a real power gain. If not, it’s a title on top of the authority he already has.

Exciting finally see it and feel the scent of the new book