Benjamin Hansen

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@benconomics

Econ Prof. I research #drugs and #alcohol, #health, and #crime @uoregon, @NBERpubs. Interim department head until 2028. I 😍🦈.

Eugene OR, NYC, Massachusetts benjaminhansen.org Joined May 2010

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Benjamin Hansen @benconomics Aug 10

How will AI change research? I bet my electric bike offers insights. At most grades I exert less effort. The e-bike motor is a force multiplier, which means I could done same effort just with a faster pace and kept my heart rate the same. Most tasks get easier and I shirk a little bit. At some steep grades, I now keep pedaling instead of giving up and hiking. For some tasks, we would have given up and now we can keep going.

Example, I made this Claude in about 5 mins that would have taken me 30-40 mins on my own time.

Benjamin Hansen @benconomics 16h

Encouraging firms to compete on price is not ideal when their market has negative externalities.

John Arnold Verified account @johnarnold 19h

Dept of Unintended Consequences:
"Plain packaging—where you strip cigarette boxes of their attractive branding—seems like a no brainer, but in Australia, it looks like the policy caused smokers to switch to cheaper brands and to smoke more."

via @a_m_mastroianni

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Benjamin Hansen @benconomics 20h

I think the other key challenge is that AI is so good at certain tasks that you might try to do more of that specific task but that task itself may not really contribute to the bottom line or the mission of your organization that much.

John Arnold Verified account @johnarnold 22h

This is the common AI experience I hear from non-tech, small biz CEOs. They're paying for AI for many/all of their white collar workers. They can describe a few tasks where AI blows them away and the benefits are substantive. When asked whether AI can do a full job rather than a specific task, they say 'it's not there yet.' They haven't laid off workers but some haven't backfilled a position in a division like finance. They're optimistic about the future value of AI to their businesses.

The big question I leave with is whether:
1) AI can already perform entire jobs, but management and employees at most companies haven't figured out how to maximize its use.
2) Today's models aren't very capable of performing entire jobs at most companies, but future models will be.
3) AI has a more fundamental limitation in that it can automate individual tasks but has limited ability to replace most jobs.
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Benjamin Hansen @benconomics 1d

The superstars in acadamia might make 500,000 to 600,000 a year at least at their main job and the people on the minor leagues so to speak in academia are making 50k to 60k. Vs sports we're talking $50m a year vs. $5k or even nothing.

Sports is not a great analogy here based on how much superstars in sports make relative to the minors.

Chris Kennedy Verified account @ChrisJKennedy 3d

A lot of people start PhDs with the expectation that academia is a normal industry where you can work hard and make a good living. In reality, most fields are like professional sports: grinding and low wages with the occasional superstar. Unfortunately, most professors don’t live in reality and fail to advise their students properly.
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Benjamin Hansen @benconomics 1d

I think the coolest stuff will be out of academia in the next couple decades. We're too slow.

John Friedman Verified account @johngfriedman 2d

Many academics like to believe:

1. The best students stay in academia
2. The good students who leave, do it for money
3. You can only talk to people about cool stuff in academia.

This may have been true decades ago. It is false now.
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