@bengglover
Burnham said that he would reverse neoliberalism - but what does it mean in practice?View quoted post on X
The 10 Year Plan will be the defining moment for the government and the answer to that question.
Read more in my latest essay for Renewal (free).
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"The need for a shift to prevention is nothing new; it has featured in countless government white papers over the years. Yet the promise has never been delivered."View quoted post on X
@bengglover argues for a new category of government spending focused on prevention: 👇
labourlist.org/2023/11/rachel…
www.theguardian.com Drive reindustrialisation from No 10 North or risk failure, MPs tell Burnham Ninety-plus Labour MPs warn civil service lacks skills to drive growth where it is needed and plan should be steered by Louise Haigh from Manchester Fantastic introduction to the latest Future of the Left newsletter from @Jackpeacock21.View quoted post on X
Since 2016, the electoral strategy of winning the political centre has given way to the so-called bloc theory of voting. On the one side is the left bloc which includes Labour, Lib Dem, and Green voters. And on the other is the right bloc which includes Conservative and Reform voters. The progressive bloc is younger, more credentialed, and more socially liberal. The right bloc is older, less formally educated, and more conservative.
The 2024 election was the most volatile on record. 40 per cent of voters backed a different party than they had in 2019. Despite this, the two blocs remained broadly consistent. Inter-bloc switching held at 11 to 13 per cent between 2019 and 2024. Switching within the blocs rose from around 10 to over 25 per cent.
From this evidence the strategic advice follows with unpleasant tidiness. Labour’s objective should be reasserting dominance over the left bloc to benefit from tactical switching, while maintaining division within the right bloc. Do not chase the voters who have long since abandoned Labour because of some fixation with representing a vision of working-class voters who no longer exist. Instead, Labour should target the pool of progressive voters within the left bloc.
There are three reasons this is a mistake.
First. Burnham’s leadership has boosted Labour’s vote by 10 to 12 per cent through squeezing Lib Dem and Green defectors. Despite this success, Labour is still only polling in the high 20s. Far stickier are the 12 - 15 per cent of inter-bloc defectors to the right, who Labour need if they want to form a majority at the next election. The bloc strategy was rational damage limitation during the nadir of Starmer, when left defectors outnumbered those to the right. But it was always only a first step in reviving Labour’s prospects.
Second. The bloc strategy assumes that multiparty politics is here to stay in its current form. I am not confident it is. You can begin to see the emerging contours of a more recognisable conflict between Labour and the Conservatives on the economy. Reform’s path to becoming the largest party depends on a cross-class coalition in constituencies which will face Labour, particularly in the north, and the Conservatives, particularly in the south. While Reform will continue to capitalise on immigration as a top issue, in a battle between Tory and Labour on the economy, Reform are vulnerable. And who’s to say that M4 corridor Lib Dems will be willing to proxy vote for a Labour government committed to public ownership of utilities and reindustrialising the North East?
The third reason is most fundamental: bloc theory, as well as having a low ceiling, does politics backwards. It does not answer the question of what the Labour government should do. It tells you how to triangulate, relegating questions of government to short-term political expediency. But any durable coalition needs to be held together by more than arithmetic. What Labour should do, and who it is for, demands a deeper answer.
NEW POLLING: 'Reindustrialisation' is one of the Prime Minister’s favourite slogans. Some economists dismiss it as nostalgic and naive. But what do voters think?
The verdict is clear: voters love the term, with net approval of +61 points, rising to +67 among Labour’s 2024 votersView quoted post on X
