Fuck , wish I didn’t wake up this morning
Molly
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# semi-retired #
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Hope Anthropic tanks below its IPO price and finds no exit liquidity. Let its wrongdoing catch up with it.
Fuck the fuck .
The U.S. gov wants to maintain its dominance in AI and prevent China from catching up. China hawks believe denying access to Nvidia chips will slow China’s AI development.
Nvidia wants to maintain its market dominance and avoid being replaced by Chinese chipmakers. And believe that cutting China off completely would only accelerate domestic alternatives, potentially leaving China with a self-sufficient AI ecosystem.
The Chinese gov, meanwhile, wants to accelerate its domestic chip industry by imposing additional restrictions on Nvidia imports. It’s betting that short-term chip shortages are worth the long-term payoff of breaking free from America’s technological chokehold. Developing a domestic chip industry requires massive investment, and forcing Chinese companies to buy homegrown chips is one way to guarantee demand and channel funding into domestic chipmakers.
Chinese AI companies, especially small and mid-sized ones, are the ones suffering from underperforming domestic chips. With limited funding, they need to make every dollar count, deliver results, and raise more money from hype-driven VCs. That’s why they’re willing to pay a hefty premium for Nvidia chips.
And arbitrageurs see an opportunity in the gap between demand and supply. For context, the price difference for B300 chips is reportedly around 4x.
Only time will tell which theory holds up. But for the rest of us, it’ll be fascinating to watch these competing bets play out in real time. With information and data more accessible than ever, we can test these theories against actual AI progress, chipmakers’ growth, and production output.
And pray we get one more bitcoin pump at least , in the time of exit liquidity crisis .
Nvidia wants to maintain its market dominance and avoid being replaced by Chinese chipmakers. And believe that cutting China off completely would only accelerate domestic alternatives, potentially leaving China with a self-sufficient AI ecosystem.
The Chinese gov, meanwhile, wants to accelerate its domestic chip industry by imposing additional restrictions on Nvidia imports. It’s betting that short-term chip shortages are worth the long-term payoff of breaking free from America’s technological chokehold. Developing a domestic chip industry requires massive investment, and forcing Chinese companies to buy homegrown chips is one way to guarantee demand and channel funding into domestic chipmakers.
Chinese AI companies, especially small and mid-sized ones, are the ones suffering from underperforming domestic chips. With limited funding, they need to make every dollar count, deliver results, and raise more money from hype-driven VCs. That’s why they’re willing to pay a hefty premium for Nvidia chips.
And arbitrageurs see an opportunity in the gap between demand and supply. For context, the price difference for B300 chips is reportedly around 4x.
Only time will tell which theory holds up. But for the rest of us, it’ll be fascinating to watch these competing bets play out in real time. With information and data more accessible than ever, we can test these theories against actual AI progress, chipmakers’ growth, and production output.
And pray we get one more bitcoin pump at least , in the time of exit liquidity crisis .
Would’ve been a great short. It even singled out megaspeed(the company linked to Alice Huang) as the main reason to short.
Sadly, one step ahead gets you paid. Ten steps ahead gets you liquidated.
Sadly, one step ahead gets you paid. Ten steps ahead gets you liquidated.
NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.View quoted post on X
