This is just a quick update on our Northwest Passage trip.
Roberta and I are currently at our home near Seattle, but we'll be flying back to the boat a week from today.
A few boats are hoping to transit the Northwest Passage from west to east this year. So far we've seen four sailboats and no other powerboats. There may be others, but I I think we would have seen them by now.
The short version is that the passage is currently blocked. We need some ice to melt—or move—before we can continue.
Actually, it's a bit more complicated than that. The Northwest Passage is the narrow gap between the northern coasts of Alaska and Canada and the polar ice cap. During the summer, enough ice usually melts to create a navigable corridor between the land and the permanent pack ice.
The problem is that the ice is constantly changing. Large pieces break off, new ice occasionally forms, and winds and currents push the floating ice around. A route that is open today can become blocked tomorrow, and a route that looks blocked on the morning ice chart may open later that same day. The official ice reports are excellent, but by the time they're published, the wind may already have changed the conditions.
Of the five boats I know about (including ours), two are waiting in Nome, two have positioned themselves closer to the ice, and one bold sailboat has already started the journey. The boats are staying in touch, and that sailboat is heading toward the current blockage, hoping the ice will move or melt enough by the time they arrive to let them through.
No one has ever accused me of being bold.
There's an old saying: "There are old sailors and bold sailors, but no old, bold sailors." I think there's a lot of truth to that. Roberta and I have traveled all over the world by boat, and when people ask us about exciting stories of surviving terrible storms, we really don't have many. That's by design. We plan our routes and timing with one goal in mind: boring passages. So far, that approach has worked, and we'd like to keep it that way.
So here's our plan...
Roberta and I will be back aboard North Star on August 13. If conditions look favorable, we'll head to the entrance to the passage and continue monitoring the ice reports while staying in close contact with the other boats. If the route opens, we'll go immediately.
If it's still blocked by September 1, we'll have a difficult decision to make.
Out of curiosity, I asked ChatGPT what it thought our chances were of making it safely through the Northwest Passage this season. After thinking for a while—and offering plenty of caveats—it finally answered, "75%."
I wouldn't trust any computer (or AI) completely, but that number feels about right to me. The odds seem to be in our favor. We have a good boat, an experienced crew, and now all we need is a little cooperation from Mother Nature.
That's it for now...
—Ken Williams (with Roberta Williams and our two pups - Pixie and Keeley)
MV North Star
Roberta and I are currently at our home near Seattle, but we'll be flying back to the boat a week from today.
A few boats are hoping to transit the Northwest Passage from west to east this year. So far we've seen four sailboats and no other powerboats. There may be others, but I I think we would have seen them by now.
The short version is that the passage is currently blocked. We need some ice to melt—or move—before we can continue.
Actually, it's a bit more complicated than that. The Northwest Passage is the narrow gap between the northern coasts of Alaska and Canada and the polar ice cap. During the summer, enough ice usually melts to create a navigable corridor between the land and the permanent pack ice.
The problem is that the ice is constantly changing. Large pieces break off, new ice occasionally forms, and winds and currents push the floating ice around. A route that is open today can become blocked tomorrow, and a route that looks blocked on the morning ice chart may open later that same day. The official ice reports are excellent, but by the time they're published, the wind may already have changed the conditions.
Of the five boats I know about (including ours), two are waiting in Nome, two have positioned themselves closer to the ice, and one bold sailboat has already started the journey. The boats are staying in touch, and that sailboat is heading toward the current blockage, hoping the ice will move or melt enough by the time they arrive to let them through.
No one has ever accused me of being bold.
There's an old saying: "There are old sailors and bold sailors, but no old, bold sailors." I think there's a lot of truth to that. Roberta and I have traveled all over the world by boat, and when people ask us about exciting stories of surviving terrible storms, we really don't have many. That's by design. We plan our routes and timing with one goal in mind: boring passages. So far, that approach has worked, and we'd like to keep it that way.
So here's our plan...
Roberta and I will be back aboard North Star on August 13. If conditions look favorable, we'll head to the entrance to the passage and continue monitoring the ice reports while staying in close contact with the other boats. If the route opens, we'll go immediately.
If it's still blocked by September 1, we'll have a difficult decision to make.
Out of curiosity, I asked ChatGPT what it thought our chances were of making it safely through the Northwest Passage this season. After thinking for a while—and offering plenty of caveats—it finally answered, "75%."
I wouldn't trust any computer (or AI) completely, but that number feels about right to me. The odds seem to be in our favor. We have a good boat, an experienced crew, and now all we need is a little cooperation from Mother Nature.
That's it for now...
—Ken Williams (with Roberta Williams and our two pups - Pixie and Keeley)
MV North Star
