CJ (晨杰)

community eats first

The markets are coming to terms with a very consequential election result that is a changing of the guards in the House and Senate from generally pro-business to generally anti-business lawmaking

The blue wave was bigger than most expected. Republicans losing Texas and Kansas is a generational fumble.

AI debt is extremely leveraged, making it sensitive to market shocks (ie regime change or war) and a similar experience to what we encounter in options called “theta” or time decay - it is a variable which scales risk considerably, meaning that revenue needed to support the ecosystem doesn’t just have to come, it has to come fast to support the credit.

A lot of this debt is also private and/or being structured off balance sheet in SPVs with sub-optimal hedging products, a big opportunity for @trylimitless

2024-2025: no one will trade up/down prediction markets when perps exist
2026: HRT has started trading on up-down markets, but not sports

In October 2025, auto deleveraging on Binance triggered the largest liquidation event in crypto history with over $19B in liquidations

In October 2026, Binance experienced the largest hack in crypto history with over $6B being exploited

Coincidence?