@cwarshaw
Preliminary estimates suggest Michigan Democrats got 54% of the statewide state House vote vs 57% of seats and 55% of the statewide state Senate vote vs 61% of seats. This is slightly below cube law predications, with a mean-median split of 55-53.View quoted post on X
I think political debates about electability would be clearer if people would just admit that they are willing to bear some losses or slimmer margins in pursuit of their policy goals. That's totally reasonable! I am too!View quoted post on X
Then we can have a debate about whether those losses are worth it.
For instance -- Dems passed the Civil Rights Act and lost the South. FDR won Assad-level margins in part by eschewing racial liberalism (see: anti-lynching bills). Republicans spent 50 years trying to overturn Roe and paid for it at the ballot box.
The relevant questions are: a) Is what you're losing votes for worth it b) do you lose *so* many votes that you can't even enact policy c) are you spurring a backlash that wipes out gains that you made?
Here's a map of what 250+ Democratic seats would likely look like from PlanScore:View quoted post on X
planscore.org/#!predict12D-u…
If the NYT/Siena poll is correct and the generic ballot ends up D+11, this would be the largest midterm victory (for either party) since the Watergate era. It also implies that Democrats would probably win over 250 seats.View quoted post on X
nytimes.com/2026/10/21/ups…
www.nytimes.com Democrats Have a Wide Lead in Our New Poll as Trump Slides The map favors Republicans, but cracks in their base are leaving them vulnerable in defending House and Senate control. 
