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Daniil Kozin

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@daniilkozin

Raise growth capital from assets you already own. Tokenization advisory for European real-asset businesses. Real estate, energy, commodities. CEO of EasyMM.
Florianópolis, Brazil daniilkozin.com Joined November 2021
387 Following 598 Followers 9.4K Posts

Latest posts 5

Daniil Kozin Verified account @daniilkozin
In December 1957 Elvis Presley got his draft notice. 3 months later he was a private. By October 1958 he was on a US Army base in Germany.

Now Germany mails its own letters. 298,200 by June, to everyone turning 18.

And a line in its new law says men aged 17 to 45 need the army's approval to stay abroad for more than 3 months.

The law is the Military Service Modernisation Act. Bundestag vote December 5, 2025. In force January 1, 2026.

Every man born in 2008 or later must answer the questionnaire. For women it is optional.

From July 1, 2027, every 18-year-old man goes to a medical screening.

Service itself is still voluntary. The paperwork already is not.

The travel line sat in the law for 3 months. Nobody noticed.

On April 3 the Frankfurter Rundschau flagged paragraph 3 of the conscription act: men 17 to 45 need approval from a Bundeswehr career centre for any stay abroad over 3 months. Study, work, a long trip. About 20 million men.

4 days later the ministry promised a blanket exemption.

To be fair, it moved fast. The exemption took effect April 17. Today nobody needs a permit.

The catch is in the wording. Defence minister Boris Pistorius: the rule is suspended "as long as military service is voluntary."

The paragraph stays in the law. The exemption is a ministry order, and legal scholars already dispute whether it holds.

Why would it ever flip back? Look at the numbers.

298,200 letters. 96% of men answered. About 530 got a firm offer to enlist: 0.18%. Many are still in school, the ministry says.

The goal: from about 186,000 soldiers to 260,000 by the mid-2030s.

Pistorius, in the Bundestag: compulsory service stays possible "if it is not enough and the threat keeps getting worse."

Young men read the same numbers.

Austria plans to stretch military service from 6 to 9 months. In October a record 1,698 Austrians signed up for civilian service instead, 32% more than a year earlier. The minister links it to the plan. Parliament has not voted yet.

On Halloween, Gen Z protests against rent, school cuts and the draft were called in 34 German cities. Shops on Berlin's Ku'damm boarded up.

Elvis had 3 months between the letter and the barracks.

That is the part that matters. A plan B you start after the letter arrives is a deadline. A plan B you set up years before is optionality.

I learned it the late way. In 2022 my Russian passport cut me off from international finance. A Brazilian one gave it back 3 years later.

Plan B: disloyal, or basic risk management?
Daniil Kozin Verified account @daniilkozin
Most battery projects I'm shown are a permit and a promise.

This one already trades: a battery in Kotka, Finland, 4.47 MW / 8.94 MWh, about €670k EBITDA in year one.

A project sells waiting time. An operating asset sells cash flow.

Buying storage in Europe? DM me "Kotka".
Daniil Kozin Verified account @daniilkozin
Investors pay ~$300k per user.
The app charges them $0.

At $20 a month, the usual price of an AI subscription, a user would need 1,250 years to pay that back. And that's if they pay at all, the open question for this whole AI bubble.
Daniil Kozin Verified account @daniilkozin
Nysa went through our Demo Day program in August, and in September I hosted its co-founder in an AMA, with no paid relationship. I still gave its USDC vault on Kamino 4/10.

On 2 Nov the vault passed $200K, 18 days after launch, at 12%+, so I asked Nysa who pays the 12%.
Daniil Kozin Verified account @daniilkozin 3d
Nysa's USDC vault shows savers 13.86% a year.

Borrowers pay 0.04%.

So who pays the other 13.82? I asked @NysaFinance 18 questions. They answered every one on the record.

RWA Roast #29. Verdict: 4/10.
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Daniil Kozin Verified account @daniilkozin
Wall Street is onchain. So are its 2008 habits.

I spent this week checking tokenized products line by line. Six mechanics from the last crisis are back, only faster and with fewer referees.

1. Teaser rates. Subprime loans opened with a cheap rate that reset later. On 5 November a USDC vault on Solana showed savers 13.86% a year. Borrowers paid 0.04 of it. The other 13.82 points came from the project's own treasury, with enough left to about mid-December.

2. Ratings nobody checks. In 2008 the issuer paid for its AAA. Today dashboards rank issuers by tokens minted. A "$500M bond" on Stellar has one holder: the issuer, who minted 460M of those tokens to itself. The offering page shows $0 raised.

3. Short money, long assets. Asset-backed commercial paper peaked at $1.2 trillion in July 2007 and lost $350 billion in 5 months when buyers stopped rolling it. Those conduits at least had bank liquidity lines. Today 61.5% of one tokenized home-equity product sits in lending markets as leveraged carry, with no bank line behind it.

4. Loops. Before 2008 one asset could back several claims. Onchain, users borrow against a token, deposit the loan back into the same vault and collect rewards on both sides.

5. Marks set by the seller. Mark-to-model meant an asset was worth what the model said. Many tokenized notes show a NAV of $1.00 set by the issuer, with zero trades to test it.

6. Custody you can't see. The largest tokenized gold product keeps its bars in Switzerland with a custodian it doesn't name and describes as a related party.

Tokenization is good plumbing. In 2008 the pipes weren't the problem either. The problem was what got pushed through them, and that nobody independent checked.

Which of the six do you see most often?