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David Hall

@dlwh

Creator of Levanter and @MarinCommunity. MTS @ Open Athena. Previously Research Engineering @StanfordCRFM, co-founder at Semantic Machines ⟶ MSFT.
Berkeley, CA dlwh.org Joined September 2007
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David Hall @dlwh
So, about that Uncheatable forecast. I used an estimate that wasn’t properly flop-controlled, and hadn’t checked its asymptote carefully enough.

I should have checked it before posting. Easy fix. Details below.
Marin's 535b is now >80% through pretraining! Here’s loss vs. our scaling-ladder forecasts. The sharp drop comes with the 4K→16K context switch, so we're kind of cheating the forecast. (This was planned.) We'll re-eval at 4k too. forge.coreweave.com/wandb/marin-co…
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David Hall @dlwh
As usual Larry has the actually useful details.
Larry Dial Verified account @classiclarryd Oct 25
background- our data has longer docs so intent was to launch at 16k like MAI. However our MoE kernel only supported 4k (high dropping), so we planned to extend after kernel was improved. Since that eta was unknown, scaling ladder was kept at 4k, with knowledge that scaling ladder would cease to apply once new kernel landed and context grew. Quite remarkably that and many other kernel improvements landed, raising MFU from 20 to 30 mid run.

The forecast on Uncheatable was added mid run where its fcst starts, but we didn't calibrate its asymptote or fit it to the data from the run, so its quite off. The main value we got from it was to directionally estimate impact of the earlier datamix change. Paloma was the eval used to evaluate if we were 'on track'.

Memory caps tokens per batch, so 4x longer context is paired with 4x fewer sequences.
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David Hall @dlwh
Paloma forecast is much better/more correct btw, up to 4k->16k changeover
Marin's 535b is now >80% through pretraining! Here’s loss vs. our scaling-ladder forecasts. The sharp drop comes with the 4K→16K context switch, so we're kind of cheating the forecast. (This was planned.) We'll re-eval at 4k too. forge.coreweave.com/wandb/marin-co…
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