ecoinometrics

For a Bitcoin drawdown this deep, our historical model suggests a total duration of roughly 1 to 1.5 years.

We're already 390 days into the current drawdown, and Bitcoin is still far from recovering its previous high.

That historical timetable is starting to look optimistic.

Bitcoin's recovery is in danger.

• BTC is just 7% above its 200-day moving average.
• That cushion can disappear in two bad trading days.
• ETF outflows are accelerating. The Nasdaq is tanking.

Lose the 200-day average and Bitcoin's recovery is back to square one.

What actually moves Bitcoin:

• ETF buying and corporate buying both help
• For the same amount of Bitcoin, ETF demand has a much larger effect on monthly returns
• Treasury headlines matter less than the ETF bid

Bitcoin ETF demand has changed regime:

• Late October's inflows faded in just a few days
• Flows have now flipped to strong outflows
• When flows look like this, Bitcoin's daily returns have usually been negative

Bitcoin demand in October:
• Public companies bought more after a weak summer
• Spot ETFs saw net outflows
• Corporate buying covered part of the gap, not all of it