Rafael Proença

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@externalidades

Brazilian, dad, trying to help accelerate economic growth of developing countries @coeff_giving

Washington, DC Joined November 2010

652 Following 418 Followers 120 Posts

Latest posts 5

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Rafael Proença @externalidades Oct 16

The development economics community is not AGI-pilled enough. The possibility is real and the stakes are high.

Imo, the main question is how poor countries can accelerate their growth after AI causes a frontier growth acceleration.

Here's a plan you can disagree with:

Rafael Proença Verified account @externalidades Oct 15

Do everything you can to accumulate productive AI-enhanced capital.

In the TAI world, frontier growth is driven by robots doing activities of economic value. Whoever owns the robots gets rich, so poor countries should try to own more robots.
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Rafael Proença @externalidades Oct 15

In 1800, Mali's per capita GDP was roughly 5x smaller than Britain's. Today it is 25x smaller.

The Industrial Revolution widened the gap and two centuries didn't close it.

AI might cause a new growth acceleration in frontier economies. How can poor countries bridge the gap faster this time?

Rafael Proença @externalidades Aug 26

I agree popular opinion shifts in cascade and we might be witnessing it in AI, but I don't think it will be as sharp as COVID because COVID was

"this thing might be reaching and KILLING you next week!"

"START WASHING YOUR GROCERIES NOW!"

Nabeel S. Qureshi Verified account @nabeelqu Aug 26

For AI risk, if the prior period was "November-February 2020" in COVID terms, we're now in March 2020, where high status people are starting to express worry.

Soon a preference cascade where being concerned about AI risk stops looking odd. Gates is a good barometer of this.
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Rafael Proença @externalidades Aug 12

1/ very interesting post on the economic effects of AI by friends and colleagues @oliverwkim , @karthiktadepall , and Joseph Levine.

Thoughts in thread:
global-developments.org/p/what-will-ai…

www.global-developments.org What Will AI Do To Global Inequality? Through the Looking-Glass of Heckscher-Ohlin

Rafael Proença @externalidades Aug 5

Robert McNamara was the most influential World Bank president, but that was probably his second most consequential job. Interesting and well written piece:

Oliver Kim Verified account @oliverwkim Jul 23

I'm in IN DEVELOPMENT this week, writing about the two Robert McNamaras—architect of the Vietnam War and president of the World Bank, "the living embodiment of midcentury American technocracy".

indevelopmentmag.substack.com/p/numbers-man-…

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