Spencer Mossman

My new player Action Impact Model (AIM), explained.

If you have an interest in football analytics, I encourage you to give this a read and share any thoughts or feedback for improvements.

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The Action Impact Model medium.com/@spencerpmossm…

🇳🇴 Some notes on Antonio Nusa

- in his three seasons at RBL, he has evolved from a direct dribbler with minimal threat to a direct dribbler with a higher volume of end product but lacks efficiency to a more balanced/efficient dribbler with high level creative output
- 0.069 npxG per shot in the Bundesliga across three seasons is pretty rough; having registered 5 big chances in 4200 minutes is awful too so its not like he's feast or famine in terms of chance quality, its just famine (for reference, Yan Diomande registered 12 in 2500 minutes last year, and I wouldn't consider consistent goal-scoring his standout trait by any means)
- very ball-to-feet; he's never eclipsed P38 for xThreat received, P30 for prg receptions
- when he's pulled off dribbles, they've always been dangerous (P91-98 in the three seasons for productive dribbles p90)
- the value of his offensive actions has risen each season (second image), aligns with the volume data in the gif
- when you look at HOW he creates, its less so from crosses and more so moving from channel to half-space (Opta Analyst image); this is backed up by the third season in the gif
- back pass rate (how often he's passing backwards) has risen from P44 to P64 to P82 each of the past two seasons
- the third image from PlayerPrint on (playback90.com) shows the results of his carries - he's looking to get face up and cut inside to slip passes through or find cut backs much more often than he is to shoot

To me, his profile reads like a ball-to-feet, direct dribbler that's shown YoY improvement. Maturity shown in how efficient his dribbles have become in terms of success rate up, rate of action down, and overall threat created going up with it. All of this is excellent.

The downsides are that despite being a right-footed LW, I don't see him as a long-term goal threat unless he has a multi-season Linsanity run of xG over-performance. He also doesn't generate a tremendous amount of threat from crosses (around P70 the past two seasons, but his uptick in productivity coincided with a drop to just bottom third this season).

That makes him a bit of a one-trick pony: going to look take defenders on and then find runners or a free man near the box. Less willing to stick his foot on the ball and find an earlier cross, or drive to shoot (comparatively to other wingers). Further evidenced by his ever increasing rate of back passes - the more his dribbling has developed and his carrying become more adventurous, he still needs to recycle more often, as finding an early ball or later shot don't seem to be on his agenda.

All of that, plus the injury concerns from his collapsed Brentford (if they're still relevant).

To me, he'd have to keep up this level of creative output for a full season to justify a big big move this summer. Even then, understand the profile and don't expect him to be something he's not, but at least he would have a serious sample operating as a top level creator.

- Toni Kroos was the best midfielder of his generation
- PL middle class right now smokes mid table 10+ years ago; ex: ‘26/27 Fulham would finish on like 60 points in the early 2010s
- Michael Olise is the best footballer on the planet and was T5 even before leaving Palace

Martin Ødegaard has quietly and consistently been one of the most influential midfielders on the ball in the Premier League during the 2020s.