New ForeCast episode: Avi Parrack and Tom Davidson on why the US could soon dominate space, whether it could lock rivals out of orbit, and what a space lead means for US–China competition
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Forethought
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Research nonprofit exploring how to navigate explosive AI progress.
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New from James Tillman: some AI models may now keep improving with test-time compute far past the most they ever used on a training task.
He calls this "compute extrapolation," argues it probably arrived around the end of 2025, and explains why it could speed capabilities and make dangerous-capability evals far more expensive.
forethought.org/research/two-k…
He calls this "compute extrapolation," argues it probably arrived around the end of 2025, and explains why it could speed capabilities and make dangerous-capability evals far more expensive.
forethought.org/research/two-k…
www.forethought.org Two Kinds of Test-Time Scaling Some AI models now keep improving with test-time compute far past the most they used per task in training. Why that speeds AI progress and strains evals. New from Stefan Torges: How Long is the Long Reflection?
“AI can speed up learning, but it cannot speed up becoming. The only fast route to more reflective values is handing the future to versions of ourselves we would not recognize.”
newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-long-is-…
“AI can speed up learning, but it cannot speed up becoming. The only fast route to more reflective values is handing the future to versions of ourselves we would not recognize.”
newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-long-is-…
newsletter.forethought.org How long is the long reflection? The long reflection once meant 10,000 years; some now say months. AI can speed up learning, but not becoming: changing what we value runs on human time. "Automating alignment" covers three kinds of work:
1. Empirical research: running experiments
2. Conceptual research: working out what we're aiming for
3. Direct work: making systems aligned
Owen Cotton-Barratt argues we should track them separately.
forethought.org/research/three…
1. Empirical research: running experiments
2. Conceptual research: working out what we're aiming for
3. Direct work: making systems aligned
Owen Cotton-Barratt argues we should track them separately.
forethought.org/research/three…
Could a first mover prevent others from accessing outer space, or raise their cost of doing so?
A new piece considers two potential kinds of space lock-out: "soft" lock-out (e.g. capturing scarce assets, like orbital bands or the best lunar sites, and denying them to rivals) and "hard" lock-out (using force, such as space-based interceptors that destroy rockets at launch).
Read it here: forethought.org/research/lock-…
A new piece considers two potential kinds of space lock-out: "soft" lock-out (e.g. capturing scarce assets, like orbital bands or the best lunar sites, and denying them to rivals) and "hard" lock-out (using force, such as space-based interceptors that destroy rockets at launch).
Read it here: forethought.org/research/lock-…
www.forethought.org Could a first mover lock everyone out of outer space? Could a first mover lock rivals out of space? We estimate the costs and likelihood of "soft" and "hard" lock-out scenarios.