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gavin leech (Non-Reasoning)
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context maximiser @ArbResearch, prez @ paradigm3.org
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was very surprised as a teen to find that the oxfam bookshop had a waiting list for volunteers
many people are saying that a girl who works in a bookstore is high status... can anybody tell me more about this?View quoted post on X
If I was a politician, I'd build as much nuclear and solar as borrowing permitted, to end the long injustice of random gas prices deciding the fate of my class
No one can react the appropriate amount to the New METR Graph, because we have no evidence we can evaluate ourselves.
However, one helpful bit in the report is when they leak three of the AECI basket of benchmarks: these at least are the usual weaksauce. An amazing mental effect
However, one helpful bit in the report is when they leak three of the AECI basket of benchmarks: these at least are the usual weaksauce. An amazing mental effect
I've always had substantially longer timelines than my friends at Anthropic — I've been concerned that they're in an echo chamber and believing the hype about their own models too much, and that they're underestimating bottlenecks and unknown unknowns. And there have definitely been specific occasions when they have overstated how much uplift they were getting from their models. Nonetheless, if METR is correct here (and I think they are among the most trustworthy sources on this topic), then my Anthropic friends have been much more right about timelines than me.View quoted post on X
This report is also some evidence that a software-only singularity is plausible. I now think that we are more than 50% likely to have full blown superintelligence in the next 18 months, absent a slowdown. I need to call my family.
