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George Noble
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Former Peter Lynch analyst | #1-ranked mutual fund manager | Finding mispriced stocks & sharing actionable ideas. Our longs vs shorts are +62%. We perform.
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The bond market told you to get out of Oracle 11 months ago.
Last December, Oracle's stock had already given back its entire AI pop, and the cost of insuring its debt was climbing because it needed to borrow $38B for its data centers. That's when we shorted it at $189.97.
Since then the stock is down 39%, and the cost of insuring Oracle's debt has more than doubled. In July, S&P cut Oracle to one notch above JUNK.
Watch the CDS, the price of insuring a company's debt against default, because the bond market figures it out before the stock market does.
Last December, Oracle's stock had already given back its entire AI pop, and the cost of insuring its debt was climbing because it needed to borrow $38B for its data centers. That's when we shorted it at $189.97.
Since then the stock is down 39%, and the cost of insuring Oracle's debt has more than doubled. In July, S&P cut Oracle to one notch above JUNK.
Watch the CDS, the price of insuring a company's debt against default, because the bond market figures it out before the stock market does.
0:40
On Wednesday, The Noble Update goes from $599 to $899 a year.
Over the past 18 months we called gold, energy, the bond selloff and the AI unwind, and 21 of our 24 scored calls are winners.
Join before Wednesday and you keep today's price of $599 a year or $99 a month for as long as you're a member.
Join us here:
georgenoble.substack.com/p/free-for-you…
Can you afford to miss this?
Over the past 18 months we called gold, energy, the bond selloff and the AI unwind, and 21 of our 24 scored calls are winners.
Join before Wednesday and you keep today's price of $599 a year or $99 a month for as long as you're a member.
Join us here:
georgenoble.substack.com/p/free-for-you…
Can you afford to miss this?
I'm giving away our members-only emergency call for FREE.
Michael Howell, David Trainer, Michael Kramer and more on liquidity, credit and the data center buildout, and what you need to understand before the next move hits.
Watch it on Substack: georgenoble.substack.com/p/free-for-you…View quoted post on X
Don’t show this to the AI bulls!
this is bigger in some ways than the Jensen scandal.View quoted post on X
You didn't have to be clever this year.
Back in March the plan was simple:
Stay away from expensive US tech and stay away from US bonds, and let everyone else pay up for American exceptionalism.
Since then the 10-year yield broke above its 2007 high. CoreWeave is down 57% and Oracle is down 39% from where we shorted them, and Tesla is down 26% from our $485 short.
The speculative junk is getting wiped out too. American Bitcoin fell 93% before we closed our short.
Valuation doesn't matter in the short run, right up until it's the only thing that matters...
Back in March the plan was simple:
Stay away from expensive US tech and stay away from US bonds, and let everyone else pay up for American exceptionalism.
Since then the 10-year yield broke above its 2007 high. CoreWeave is down 57% and Oracle is down 39% from where we shorted them, and Tesla is down 26% from our $485 short.
The speculative junk is getting wiped out too. American Bitcoin fell 93% before we closed our short.
Valuation doesn't matter in the short run, right up until it's the only thing that matters...
0:43