Jon Ma

Anthropic IPO Consensus Views:
- Overvalued at $1.5T
- Revenue is flattening
- Token are commoditized due to open source
- Token prices falling faster than demand
- Anthropic shouldn't go public b/c robbing general public of upside and passing on risk.
- Anthropic is Twilio but for intelligence.

Contrarian
- Anthropic is still a 10x from here and has venture upside.
- $80B ARR reported by WSJ is just primarily coding agents and will re-accel with Fable / Mythos
- Finance, legal, life sciences, Ode are all super early ...
- Agents = still early and most businesses think of AI = ChatGPT / Claude app.
- Anthropic will zoom past $100B ARR EOY with release of Fable 5.2 / Mythos 5.2
- Retail is starving for direct exposure to frontier labs and will ape in and drive Anthropic to $3T marketcap.
- Anthropic is easily a $500B revenue business in 2030 with simple assumption Fortune 500 spent 0.1% of OPEX today ... Stripe spends 1% and not crazy Fortune 500 replace labor with tokens in 2030. 1% of OPEX would imply 10x of the $75b revenue Q3'26 so $750B revenue in 2030.

Full thesis + model coming out Wednesday

H/T @zhengjielimm

I decided to re-read The Nvidia Way by @firstadopter.

Would highly recommend to zoom out on the Nvidia story.

Reminded of how much pain / suffering Jensen went through (literally entire chapter on near death experiences 1993-2003 and SEGA giving $NVDA a lifeline) and how much Nvidia is Jensen (honing the sword, suffering is part of the game, demanding extreme commitment, focus on excellence,) wins b/c of him.

We forget a lot of core executives and engineers have been at Nvidia for years if not decades b/c of Jensen.

Jonah Alben who could be a replacement for Jensen has been there for 3 decades (!!)

Nvidai is Jensen.

Sadly, one of his lessons Tae highlights is not to make the same mistake twice and that bit him in the butt.

No one is perfect, including Jensen and its a reminder to give grace / humility to ourselves and everyone since we will all have our ups and downs.

Even the guy who became on top of the Ai industry.

Nvidia going to report $109B +92% Y/Y next week: but now trades at 2027 P/E- 10.5x and 2028 7.9x

Whereas CPUs trade at 2027 P/E 23.4x 2028 15.4x

WTF.

Just bought some more and getting it to 10% of my portfolio.

Bear case is no Jensen, $NVDA goes down and people sell $NVDA at $4T and just rotate into $ANT at $2T which is growing 10x+ YoY.

NVIDIA will be fine.

Kudos @zhengjielimm

Anthropic Bull Case: Krishna Rao (CFO) and Daniela (President) who sources have shared really runs Anthropic internally.

Krishna ability to tell story on resource allocation for compute is what will get Wall Street onboard running a frontier lab is profitable and economical.

Great insight on video breakdown Will

ANTHROPIC IS STILL EARLY: In the IPO Roadshow today, @DanielaAmodei talks about how early AI still is.

2024: AI was great at summarizing and retrieving information (e.g think main use cases for ChatGPT)

2025: AI was getting really good at coding!

2026: AI can be an autonomous engineer and broadening beyond coding to legal, industrial design, security, etc.

$ANT got to $80B ARR primarily on coding agents ... with legal, healthcare, life sciences, finance, Ode (services).

Not crazy agents are still early on the S-curve for non-coding industries and $ANT can easily get to $1T ARR by 2030.