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Was really cool chatting with @zaddycoin about our markets for numbers on @functionspaceHQ - we got into some out there topics for sure. Big shoutout to the @Shoalresearch team for setting up at this beautiful location, was feeling the tropical vibes 🌴
Prediction Markets and Numerical Outcomes: Igor Sonkin on functionSPACE and Building Your Own Payoff
Shoal Signal Ep. 22 with Igor Sonkin (@justigor), Co-Founder at @functionSPACEHQ, hosted by @zaddycoin
We cover markets on numbers instead of yes or no, swapping a stack of binary order books for one pricing function across the whole probability curve, letting traders construct their own payoff, agents as market participants, and why builders should look beyond binary event contracts.
0:00 Intro
0:29 Catching an identity fraudster inside the bank
2:34 What numerical outcome markets are
3:54 The next derivative, not just a prediction market
4:36 Makers price the curve, takers build the payoff
6:27 Why binary markets split liquidity into buckets
7:51 One pricing function across the whole curve
9:53 Impermanent loss and protecting the maker
10:33 Pregame vs. in-game information flow
12:29 What PMF looks like for an infrastructure layer
13:22 Underdog and room to innovate in sports
14:17 Set your own line, construct your own lottery ticket
16:59 No shortcuts to simplicity
17:24 Entertainment, forecasting or economic tool
17:52 Starting from Dave White's distribution markets paper
19:10 Builders as the customer
21:23 Pre-TGE markets and hedging DeFi yields
22:19 Agents as market participants
26:35 Where the edge comes from if every agent knows the same thing
29:01 Time horizons: some things just take time
30:30 Why Augur didn't become Polymarket
32:19 Alpha: forecasting books and design space beyond binary contractsView quoted post on X
