Mark Sedwill

America’s voters have passed judgement on Trump’s second term. What does it mean for Britain and our allies?

Much of the America First agenda will outlast Trump. We'll still see a shift towards the Pacific, wariness of foreign wars, an economic model built on protectionism and deficits. But some of it won’t, starting with his approach to Russia.

For allies, I’d suggest three things. Hold your nerve, reach beyond the Oval Office to the rest of the American system, and become collectively more self-reliant. Mark Carney is right that if middle powers aren’t at the table, they’re on the menu, but he left out three words: “as American allies."

More from me in @politicshome today 👇

politicshome.com/opinion/articl…

Whether Europe can turn the money it has now promised into forces was the question that hung over Prague last week at the @IISS_org Defence Summit.

The money argument is settled. European defence spending has nearly doubled in recent years, and the procurement mix has improved - up from a quarter to 36% of budgets. Several nations now outpace Britain.

The real problem is fragmentation. Europe deploys roughly 5x as many military systems as the United States. Without proper integration - in command, industry and doctrine - we get less bang for every taxpayer buck or euro or pound.

There's also a political task. The relationship between citizen and state is shifting back toward shared resilience and defence responsibility. Most Europeans haven't caught up, because most politicians haven't made the case. In a democracy, you win that argument only by making it.

The IISS Strategic Dossier released for the summit measures the gap between current capability and what's required. It's substantial 👇

iiss.org/publications/s…

I've written in @TheEconomist on why Andy Burnham's first 24 hours will define his premiership.

No10 North may as well be called Manc-a-Lago unless he's serious about real decentralisation 👇

economist.com/by-invitation/…

John Healey’s resignation spotlights the gap between Britain’s defence ambitions and the budget. We can’t do everything everywhere. General Sir Nick Carter and I explain why Dan Jarvis must make hard choices: redesign the force to mobilise via reserves, focus on the northern flank through JEF leadership and protect our global interests.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/06/1…
#UKDefence #NATO

Thanks Robert. Jarvis has two weeks until the NATO summit but could set new direction at DefMin meeting this week. Let’s hope he grasps it.