Mary Radcliffe

Chaz Nuttycombe Verified account @ChazNuttycombe · 5d

.@StateNavigate Late Sept/October polls margin difference from actual result (thus far, more votes to come)

Late October | avg 3.4%

VA US House | 1.6%
MN-GOV | 2.9%
VT-GOV | 3.6%
GA-GOV | 5.6%

Mid October (PA) | avg 2.9%

PA-SD-6 | 0.8%
PA-SD-16 | 0.8%
PA-SD-36 | 7.2%
PA-HD-18 | 0.5%
PA-HD-41 | 3.1%
PA-HD-131 | 3.0%
PA-HD-142 | 2.2%
PA-HD-143 | 2.8%
PA-HD-145 | 5.6%
PA-HD-187 | 3.0%

Late September/Early October | avg* 5.1%

PA-SD-46 | 12.0%
WV-SD-1 | 1.6%
WV-SD-8 | 3.3%
IA-SD-35 (non-recall) | 6.8%
IA-SD-35 | 1.8%

*treats each IA as their own poll

Worth noting we disclosed how we got a bad sample in our Lancaster followups in PA SD-36 & HD-41, & there were a lot of undecideds and Rs who came home in PA SD-46 through October.

Overall, our polling committee (myself, Michael Foley, @marywitha4, @gelliottmorris, @Nick_Goedert) knocked this out of the park. We're hoping for an A-rating. 🏆

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G Elliott Morris Verified account @gelliottmorris · 6d

The current GOP path to victory in a nutshell:

gelliottmorris.com/i/223234792/11…

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