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Peter Lasinger

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@peterlasinger

Austria lasinger.net Joined August 2007
118 Following 396 Followers 969 Posts

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Peter Lasinger Verified account @peterlasinger
Why 10% AI extinction prophecies are mainly narrative - and what the real threat is.

Doomsday reports are everywhere, but framing AI as a potential supervillain misses the point. The issue is not an algorithm developing a "will to power"; the real risk is how human actors use it.

Key takeaways from my latest article:

👉 Unfalsifiable Prophecies: Assigning a 10% probability to human extinction is attention-seeking narrative, not quantifiable science.

👉 The Autonomy Fallacy: High capabilities or intelligence does not imply a biological drive for ego, malice or self-preservation.

👉 Cui Bono? Alarmism often serves the interests of frontier labs looking to capture public attention and justify absolute control of the market.

👉 The Real Risk: AI is an amplifier of human intent. The true threat is not a machine trying to kill us, but concentrated power using pervasive automation to undermine human autonomy, safety, and free will.

lasinger.net/p/will-ai-even…
www.lasinger.net Will AI Eventually Kill Us? Looking behind the narrative and focusing on the real threat - the humans behind the machine.
Peter Lasinger Verified account @peterlasinger
Is Anthropic’s pricing premium sustainable?

According to the latest Vercel AI Gateway Production Index (vercel.com/blog/ai-gatewa…), we’re seeing a disconnect between model volume and spend:

- The 4.4x Disconnect: In AI coding, Anthropic handles 28% of token volume but commands a staggering 70% of total spend.
- The Rise of Commodity AI: DeepSeek captured 17% of overall gateway token volume (and 49% in coding), yet represents only ~1% of spend. Low-cost models passed the production quality bar.
- Smart Routing is King: Engineering teams are actively optimizing and differentiating model usage.

As coding intelligence becomes commoditized, paying a massive premium for every single token isn't sustainable. To stay competitive, frontier labs may inevitably see token revenue yield drop significantly.

Are you already using smart routing to cut your AI API costs, or relying on a single provider?
Peter Lasinger Verified account @peterlasinger
@threeVC backs only a handful of teams each year, looking for founders tackling the world’s most essential causes.

Ahead Health stands out because they combine a deeply mission-driven culture, with absolute rigor and deep technical excellence. They’re not just building a platform, they are transforming healthcare from the ground up. We're incredibly proud to support this world class-team as they expand into Germany and the Netherlands.

Healthcare should start while you are healthy. I’m excited about what lies ahead! 👆

Read why we partnered with this incredible team around @nicklenten, Sven Jaeschke, Vinsensius Vega and Dennis Hermann in our blog: three.vc/blog/why-we-in…
Peter Lasinger Verified account @peterlasinger
Why are we spending billions trying to give industrial robots knees?

In a warehouse or factory floor, wheels will always beat legs on stability, speed, and mechanical simplicity. More importantly, human biology runs on roughly 100 watts, while today's humanoid robots draw thousands of watts just to stay upright. Forcing electric actuators and binary code into a human silhouette doesn't inherit human capability; it just inherits our structural vulnerabilities.

We don’t need robots that look like us to build the future. We need robots that think and move with the efficiency of engineering.

Read the full piece here: lasinger.net/p/the-anthropo…
Peter Lasinger Verified account @peterlasinger
Why Most AI Startups Die: Survivability Matrix 📊

Viability hinges on 2 metrics: Gross Margin (GM=efficiency) & Net Revenue Retention (NRR=customer love).

Company positions:
đź’€ Dead Zone (Low GM/Low NRR): No lock-in, high compute, no unique data. Free funnels for Big Tech, then gone.

⏳ Efficiency Trap (High GM/Low NRR): Strong unit econ, but one-time fixes. High churn = endless CAC treadmill.

đź’¸ Subsidized Utility (Low GM/High NRR): Loved product, but customization/delivery costs too high. Looks good while bleeding cash.

🌱 Compounder (High GM/High NRR): Holy Grail. Deep dependency + improving econ at scale.

Hype starts it; only Compounders survive.

Where's your biz? 👇