Political Analysis

@polanalysis

Official Journal of the Society for Political Methodology

cambridge.org/core/journals/… Joined September 2010

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Political Analysis @polanalysis Oct 15

The October 2026 issue of Political Analysis (Volume 34, Issue 4) is out, and every article is open access. Eight papers on protest voting, coalition governments, conjoint designs, Gaussian processes, vision-language models, and more. Highlights below 🧵
cambridge.org/core/journals/…

www.cambridge.org Political Analysis: Volume 34 - Issue 4 | Cambridge Core Cambridge Core - Political Analysis - Volume 34 - Issue 4

Political Analysis @polanalysis Oct 15

New on FirstView: which cases drive a regression result? Melamed, Wippell, Schoon & Breiger extend Regression Inside Out to hazard models and beyond. Re-analyzing a democracy study, they find South Africa contributes disproportionately to the key effect.
doi.org/10.1017/pan.20…

Dot plot of each country's contribution to the estimated effect of nonviolent campaign duration on democratic survival, ranked from largest to smallest. South Africa stands far above the rest at about 0.35. Spain, Chile, Argentina and Estonia follow at about 0.1 to 0.2. Most countries make small positive contributions near zero. A few at the bottom pull in the opposite direction, with Guatemala the most negative, followed by Somalia, South Korea and Greece.

Political Analysis @polanalysis Oct 15

New on FirstView: in two field experiments with a Dutch party’s 35,000+ members, Jonne Kamphorst & Horacio Larreguy find personal calls raised volunteer sign-ups (+83% and +361%, from low baselines), especially among younger members. Emails had no effect.
doi.org/10.1017/pan.20…

Political Analysis @polanalysis Oct 15

New on FirstView: weighting can fail when nonrespondents differ on the outcome. Lafférs, Mintal & Sutóris extend a fix to ordinal scales. In the 2024 ANES, it shifts life satisfaction meaningfully but economic views only modestly.
doi.org/10.1017/pan.20…

Three-panel bar chart for the ANES question "How satisfied are you with life?" Top: life satisfaction by how much respondents liked the interview. Those who liked it more report higher satisfaction, and those who disliked it report lower satisfaction. Middle: raw, survey-weighted, and corrected estimates at 50%, 65% and 80% nonresponse. As nonresponse rises, "extremely" and "very satisfied" shrink while "slightly satisfied" and "not satisfied at all" grow. Bottom: at 65% nonresponse, estimated nonrespondents are much more often "slightly" or "not satisfied at all" than respondents.

Political Analysis @polanalysis Aug 13

Currently in FirstView: In “Let Them Eat Pie: Addressing Sample Selection in Multiparty Elections,” Ali Kagalwala, Thiago Moreira, Guy Whitten, and Yongzhi Xu introduce a maximum likelihood approach that accounts for sample selection biases in a compositional setting.