I discovered a tell of this magnitude a handful of times while working for teams, fewer than one per season. They’re among my proudest professional accomplishments.
@RyanPaganetti casually dropping this before Week 1 👏🏽👏🏽
@RyanPaganetti casually dropping this before Week 1 👏🏽👏🏽
Did this obvious Patriots passing tendency help Seattle wreck their offense in the Super Bowl?
In 2025, when New England used 11 personnel WITHOUT Mack Hollins on the field, in games he played, they passed on 54 of 56 snaps in normal early down situations.
96.4% Pass.
One missing receiver practically told you what was coming.
That situation came up six times in the Super Bowl.
The first four results:
1st and 10: Sack.
2nd and 13: Quick pressure, dumped into the flat for a loss of two.
2nd and 7: Sack.
1st and 10: Sack.
All four possessions ended in punts. None produced another first down after those plays.
Watch the clips. Despite these being early downs, Seattle showed virtually no respect for the run. They attacked with aggressive rushes and pressures.
I can’t prove Seattle identified this specific tell. But this is exactly the kind of edge Mike Macdonald hunts. I will place the odds he knew at 99%.
Multiple people have told me about what he calls the “KGB,” an operation for searching for opponent tendencies and checking his own team for tells.
I think Macdonald is a generational defensive play caller. And this operation contributes to that.
I’ve run my own “KGB” operation for teams I’ve worked for. We were not a remotely good football team with the Raiders last year, but we used several incredibly strong Josh McDaniels and Patriots tendencies to help beat them in Foxborough in Week 1.
Looking back at how the season unfolded, that might have been the biggest upset of the year.
Beyond this personnel tell, McDaniels has a number of extremely heavy passing tendencies from shotgun that we were able to take advantage of. There are other glaring tells that I may share at a later date.
These details matter.
One WR's absence. A 96.4% passing tendency. Three sacks and another loss on six snaps on football’s biggest stage.View quoted post on X
