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Credit to @Gamdom for fixing the Crash formula. They used the correction we proposed and every target now gives a 99% expected return.
But their compensation only checks your saved target, even if you usually cash out earlier. And Crash still isn’t provably fair as implemented.
HOW GAMDOM WORKED OUT COMPENSATION
Gamdom says it replayed old rounds with the new formula. For each bet, it checked one thing: would the saved auto cash out target have been reached? If yes, the bet was paid as a win.
Say your target was 2x. About 1 round in 200 crashed at 1.98x or 1.99x. Under the new formula those rounds reach 2.00x to 2.02x, so a bet waiting for 2x now gets paid $2 per $1, stake included. For players who let their target ride, that’s fair. It works out to about $10 per $1,000 wagered at 2x, which is what the old odds cost them.
WHY MANY PLAYERS GOT NOTHING
Crash lets you cash out manually at any point before your target and many players do.
Say you kept 2x saved but usually clicked out at 1.5x. About 1 round in 225 crashed at 1.49x and would now reach 1.50x or 1.51x, giving you the chance to click.
The replay only checks your auto 2x target, so you get nothing for those rounds. Yet you paid the higher house edge on every bet.
In our 44 hour recording, the 7 biggest players accounted for 46% of all wagering. Each cashed out at more than 80 different multipliers. Only Gamdom’s records can show how often they cashed out below their saved target.
WHY OUR NUMBER IS HIGHER
We priced the extra edge on every bet, however it was cashed out, because every bet faced the worse odds: $6.69 per $1,000 at 1.5x, $10 at 2x, $17.86 at 10x.
At the pace we recorded, that’s roughly 16.5 million bets since January and an estimated $1.58M in extra expected losses. Gamdom reported $339k in balance adjustments across 1,293 accounts.
The number of bets is estimated from a 44 hour window, so the real total could be lower or higher.
How to compensate is Gamdom’s call. We’re just explaining where the difference comes from.
PROVABLY FAIR ISSUE IS STILL OPEN
Gamdom switched Crash to a new hash chain twice: on 15 October, and again when the formula fix went live on 3 November. We found no public notice of either chain change and no matching advance commitment for either new chain.
The game still uses a Bitcoin block hash known since 2015. With that input already public, an operator could theoretically compare chains in advance and choose one that favors the house, and those results would still verify. We haven’t established that Gamdom did this.
But for the game to be provably fair, it needs fixing too: publish the commitment before a new chain starts, name a future Bitcoin block in advance, and use its hash as the salt, not one from 2015. If Gamdom does this, we’ll verify it and say so publicly.
But their compensation only checks your saved target, even if you usually cash out earlier. And Crash still isn’t provably fair as implemented.
HOW GAMDOM WORKED OUT COMPENSATION
Gamdom says it replayed old rounds with the new formula. For each bet, it checked one thing: would the saved auto cash out target have been reached? If yes, the bet was paid as a win.
Say your target was 2x. About 1 round in 200 crashed at 1.98x or 1.99x. Under the new formula those rounds reach 2.00x to 2.02x, so a bet waiting for 2x now gets paid $2 per $1, stake included. For players who let their target ride, that’s fair. It works out to about $10 per $1,000 wagered at 2x, which is what the old odds cost them.
WHY MANY PLAYERS GOT NOTHING
Crash lets you cash out manually at any point before your target and many players do.
Say you kept 2x saved but usually clicked out at 1.5x. About 1 round in 225 crashed at 1.49x and would now reach 1.50x or 1.51x, giving you the chance to click.
The replay only checks your auto 2x target, so you get nothing for those rounds. Yet you paid the higher house edge on every bet.
In our 44 hour recording, the 7 biggest players accounted for 46% of all wagering. Each cashed out at more than 80 different multipliers. Only Gamdom’s records can show how often they cashed out below their saved target.
WHY OUR NUMBER IS HIGHER
We priced the extra edge on every bet, however it was cashed out, because every bet faced the worse odds: $6.69 per $1,000 at 1.5x, $10 at 2x, $17.86 at 10x.
At the pace we recorded, that’s roughly 16.5 million bets since January and an estimated $1.58M in extra expected losses. Gamdom reported $339k in balance adjustments across 1,293 accounts.
The number of bets is estimated from a 44 hour window, so the real total could be lower or higher.
How to compensate is Gamdom’s call. We’re just explaining where the difference comes from.
PROVABLY FAIR ISSUE IS STILL OPEN
Gamdom switched Crash to a new hash chain twice: on 15 October, and again when the formula fix went live on 3 November. We found no public notice of either chain change and no matching advance commitment for either new chain.
The game still uses a Bitcoin block hash known since 2015. With that input already public, an operator could theoretically compare chains in advance and choose one that favors the house, and those results would still verify. We haven’t established that Gamdom did this.
But for the game to be provably fair, it needs fixing too: publish the commitment before a new chain starts, name a future Bitcoin block in advance, and use its hash as the salt, not one from 2015. If Gamdom does this, we’ll verify it and say so publicly.
As @provablyfairorg reported, the actual house edge on our Crash game was higher than the advertised 1%, ranging between 1% and 3% depending on the player's target multiplier.View quoted post on X
We've now changed the formula so it applies a flat 1% house edge across all target multipliers. The instant-crash rate remains unchanged, while all other crash points scale up slightly. The new formula can only produce an equal or higher result than the previous formula, meaning every historical round continues to verify against its original seeds.
We re-ran historical rounds using this new formula and wherever an auto-cashout target would now have been reached, we've recorded the bet as a win and credited the corresponding balance.
Total adjustment: $339,113.41 across 1,293 accounts. On top of this, we've allocated a further $250,000 in reload credits to those same 1,293 accounts, distributed proportionally to their individual adjustments.
