The stock market has been walked down for over a month, in the case of small caps, over 2 months. As someone who has been shorting bounces during that time period, I now think that is a dangerous reflex here. We had a climactic selling event last week, a strong bounce and are now approaching the first test of whether or not the trend of the previous weeks continues. The event calendar and ongoing risks look much different over the next four weeks than they did going into the previous four weeks. This move is getting long in the tooth and I think it's more likely than not that Waller's speech + today's CPI has provided an attractive opportunity to flip from a short to a long risk bias into next week's Anthropic IPO and possibly longer, TBD. This is not an all clear of the structural problems that exist, but a local call that the path to the final destination will not be easy nor in a straight line.
