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Quentin

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@quentinisonx

Co-Host of @OneChairPod
Switzerland Joined December 2017
341 Following 230 Followers 208 Posts

Latest posts 5

Quentin Verified account @quentinisonx
The main risk you take when investing in a bitcoin treasury company instead of investing in $BTC directly is the management/key man risk. That is why transparency from and trust in the management of BTCTCs is so important. Great input from @GrafYves on @Metaplanet 👇🏼
Yves-André Graf Verified account @GrafYves Sep 12
I wanted Simon’s post to change my mind.

It didn’t.

I took some time before writing this because I try to follow Michael Saylor’s philosophy of being cheerful and constructive. But being constructive does not mean staying silent when something is wrong.

Sometimes the best thing you can do for an industry you believe in is call out bad behavior, accept some short-term pain, and make sure we come out stronger on the other side.

So here goes.

I appreciate that @Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF has listened to shareholders and made further changes to the Series 10 compensation structure. But in my view, this is still not good enough.

The changes feel like the bare minimum required to somewhat appease an increasingly frustrated shareholder base rather than a fundamental acknowledgment of what went wrong.

And for me, this ultimately comes down to one thing: TRUST.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies are built on capital allocation, alignment and, above all, trust between management and shareholders.

That trust has been seriously damaged at Metaplanet. I expected much more from the management team. And frankly, I expected more from parts of the Bitcoin community as well. I saw far too much sheep mentality throughout this debate: people defending actions because of their own interests or allegiances rather than objectively asking whether those actions were right.

That is not what Bitcoin should be about.

And yes, @DavidFBailey's role throughout this controversy deserves to be called out. In my view, his defense of conduct that I find indefensible has been deeply disappointing, although unsurprising. But this is bigger than any one person.

If Bitcoin Treasury Companies are going to become a serious part of global capital markets, we need higher standards, not lower ones because the people involved are “on our side.”

Transparency matters. Alignment matters. Governance matters. And most importantly, principles matter.

Short-term criticism may hurt. But ignoring problems because we want to protect the industry will hurt far more in the long run.

Metaplanet can still rebuild that trust. But trust isn’t restored by doing the bare minimum. It is restored through actions, transparency and genuine alignment with shareholders over time.

I want Metaplanet to succeed. I want Bitcoin Treasury Companies to succeed. And that is precisely why I believe we need to hold them to a higher standard. Supporting an industry does not mean defending everything that happens within it.

Sometimes supporting it means being willing to call out what needs to change.

And to the few people who were willing to speak up, ask the uncomfortable questions and stand their ground when it would have been easier to stay silent: thank you.

It matters. And I believe the entire Bitcoin treasury industry will ultimately be stronger because of it.

As @thebtcpharaoh put it:
“History will remember those who defended the principles written into Bitcoin, and those who took the other side.”

I know which side I want to be on.
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Quentin Verified account @quentinisonx
$44.1M raised through $SATA, $54.5M through common ATM $ASST, proceeds of $98.6M, of which $81.5M were used to purchase $BTC, and $17.1M increase of USD reserve. Continued flawless, disciplined execution of the strategy by @Strive! 5% increase of their BTC stack in 1 week…! You’re not bullish enough.
Matt Cole Verified account @ColeMacro Aug 24
Strive acquired an additional 1,110 $BTC for $81.5M at an average cost of $73,409 per bitcoin, bringing total holdings to ₿21,356.

$ASST $SATA
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Quentin Verified account @quentinisonx
My take on the USD reserve.

tldr: I think it’s now large enough. @Strategy should stop using the common stock ATM to increase it further- for now.

1. Last week’s $650M increase in the USD reserve didn’t impress the market. Both $MSTR and $STRC traded down on Monday after the announcement and ended the week lower.
Obviously, one week doesn’t prove causation, but at this point I don’t see evidence that adding even more coverage is helping STRC.

2. Strategy went from one extreme to the other.
In June, they depleted the reserve to below 6 months of coverage to repurchase $1.5B of convertible debt.
Now they’ve built it to almost 3 years.
@CernBasher's chart illustrates this volatility in the USD reserve nicely.

3. Compare that with @Strive .
They’ve been much more predictable and consistent, keeping reserve coverage around 18 months.
In my view, part of $SATA’s outperformance vs. STRC comes from exactly this. Investors simply have a more predictable product.

4. And just because Strategy has almost 3 years of coverage today doesn’t mean investors know it will stay there.
Strategy’s guidance is to maintain a minimum of 12 months of USD reserve coverage.
So another drawdown (to repurchase more convertible debt) remains possible.
I’m not saying that would be a bad move for Strategy long term. I think eliminating the converts and cleaning up the balance sheet is ultimately the right move.
But in the short term, it would reinforce the uncertainty around the USD reserve and likely hurt STRC.

So what would I rather see Strategy do?

1. Focus on getting STRC back to par:
Continue opportunistically issuing MSTR common through the ATM over the coming weeks/months, but use those proceeds for STRC (and potentially other preferred) buybacks.
Right now, I think that has the highest marginal impact.

2. Once STRC is back at par, restart the STRC ATM.
Then use the proceeds for BOTH:
- buying Bitcoin
- increasing the USD reserve enough to keep dividend coverage roughly constant
Essentially the disciplined approach Strive is taking.

3. Wait for BTC and MSTR to recover before attacking the converts.
Once Bitcoin returns to an uptrend, sentiment improves and mNAV expands, use MSTR common issuance to repay convertible debt.

4. Build the massive USD reserve during the next full-blown bull market.
If/when mNAV gets back above 2–3x, aggressively hit the common ATM to buy Bitcoin - and then increase the USD reserve toward 4–5 years of coverage.

That’s when a huge reserve makes sense to me: when you can build it by taking advantage of a high mNAV and prepare the balance sheet for the next bear market.

Imagine Strategy entering the next bear market with:
1 to 1.5M BTC + $20–30B in cash.
That would give them enormous optionality.

STRC and the other preferreds would likely trade much stronger than they have during this bear market because of the huge reserve behind them - potentially allowing Strategy to issue prefs and buy Bitcoin cheaply.

They also wouldn’t need to rely nearly as aggressively on common issuance during the downturn.
That could help MSTR maintain an mNAV comfortably above 1.0, preserving the ability to issue common accretively to fund dividend obligations and/or buy more BTC.

So overall, I agree with the idea of eventually having 4 to 5 years of USD reserve coverage.

I just don’t think now is the time to build all of it.
My preferred sequence:

STRC back to par → disciplined STRC ATM → BTC bull market/mNAV expansion → repay converts → aggressively build BTC + USD reserve at high mNAV → enter the next bear market with an absolute fortress of a balance sheet.

@chasepalmieri @saylor @phongle @ColeMacro @TylerCompiler
Cern Basher Verified account @CernBasher Aug 14
Is Strategy's USD reserve large enough?

This chart shows Strategy's $4.65 billion reserve compared to the outstanding debt balance ($6.754 billion - red dashed line), and 2 yrs, 3 yrs & 4 yrs of preferred dividends (dotted lines).

They are approaching 3 years of dividend coverage ($5.207 billion).

If they take the USD reserve up to 4 years of dividend coverage ($6.942 billion) they will also have zero net debt.

Is a zero net debt position required? No, but it would probably give investors a lot of confidence right now.

The chart was inspired by this excellent interview with @RobinSeyr by @GrafYves
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Quentin Verified account @quentinisonx
Great discussion with @RobinSeyr and @GrafYves on $MSTR, putting its scale and size in perspective 👇🏼
One Chair Verified account @OneChairPod Aug 13
Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market.

And @RobinSeyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world.

In our latest conversation, we went deep into:
→ Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market
→ Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC
→ The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve
→ Why $STRC could return to par
→ Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF
→ The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies
→ The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody
→ The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation
→ And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis

Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen.

This was a fun one.

00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey
07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR)
14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever?
21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100
25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now?
34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big?
39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock?
44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries
53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody
59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR)
01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy?
01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis
01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors
01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr

Full episode 👇
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Quentin Verified account @quentinisonx
Daily dividend payment for $SATA starting mid-June. @strive moving fast. Great to see companies other than @Strategy innovate in the BTCTC space! 👇🏼
One Chair Verified account @OneChairPod May 14
🚨@Strive $ASST just shocked the Bitcoin treasury market. 🚨

Starting June 15th, $SATA will pay DAILY dividends

We break down with @TylerCompiler:
• Why this changes Bitcoin yield products forever
• Whether @Strategy $MSTR must respond
• How Strive may have solved Nasdaq restrictions
• Why “Paper Bitcoin Summer 2.0” could be coming

Innovation on Digital Credit is moving FAST.

00:00 Strive’s SHOCKING Daily Dividend Announcement
02:47 Daily Dividends Could Revolutionize Brokerage Cash
05:10 Possible Workaround Strive Found Before Strategy
06:56 Will Strategy Copy Strive Immediately?
08:32 Did Strategy Delay Their Q&A Because of Strive?
09:00 Speculations on Strategy's Response
09:40 Wild Theory: Strive + Metaplanet Merger
11:46 Bitcoin Treasury Innovation Is Accelerating FAST
12:39 Could Daily Dividends Kill Arbitrage Opportunities?
15:35 Why Strive Might Be the Most Innovative Bitcoin Treasury Company
19:00 Will SATA Make Yield Tokens Obsolete?
21:26 “Paper Bitcoin Summer 2.0”?

Full episode 👇
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