Ryan Bates

@rj_bates2

College Basketball Research | UIUC Alum | Inquiry: ryanjobates@gmail.com

Joined October 2025

384 Following 255 Followers 100 Posts

Latest posts 5

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Ryan Bates @rj_bates2 Apr 23

I’ve added time-decayed three factor influence (PPS, REB%, and TOV%) to the RAPM page so you can better see how players achieve their impact. The PPS estimates are points added per 100 team true shooting attempts, so free throws are included. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Ryan Bates @rj_bates2 Oct 8

VPN now cooked

Ryan Bates @rj_bates2 Dec 25, 2025

Just got IP banned from stats.ncaa 😔
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Ryan Bates @rj_bates2 Sep 23

With coach rankings talk on the timeline, might as well plug my recent work. Here are the top 25 active coaches with the highest lower bound for estimated effect on player impact. This is only looking at “coaching” effect so this isn’t a definitive ranking of the “best” coaches.

Ryan Bates @rj_bates2 Sep 22

And here are the top unique player peaks in predicted OBPM, DBPM, and BPM since the 09-10 NCAA season.

Ryan Bates @rj_bates2 Sep 21

Combined shrinkage toward the league average with exponential decay, giving more weight to recent performances, to create a BPM estimate designed to best predict a player's next game using their career data. Here’s how Flory Bidunga has progressed throughout his career.

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Ryan Bates @rj_bates2 Sep 21

Combined shrinkage toward the league average with exponential decay, giving more weight to recent performances, to create a BPM estimate designed to best predict a player's next game using their career data. Here’s how Flory Bidunga has progressed throughout his career.