Since 2000, ave US software engineer salaries have stayed in range 2.34–2.41x US median wages. If AI greatly increases their productivity, we should see that >3x soon. Who wants to bet on when that will happen?
Robin Hanson
Verified account MetaDAO@robinhanson
Let’s skip witty banter & talk deep Qs.
Books: ageofem.com elephantinthebrain.com
Advisor @_futarchy @MetaDAOProject @butterygg
Books: ageofem.com elephantinthebrain.com
Advisor @_futarchy @MetaDAOProject @butterygg
791 Following 128K Followers 74K Posts
Latest posts 5
Fears that top AIs might do recusive self-improvement to dominate world fast depend on a key assumption: that intelligence is low dimensional, so super AI mathers and coders can quickly get super-good at most everything. This I doubt.
overcomingbias.com/p/how-low-dime…
overcomingbias.com/p/how-low-dime…
www.overcomingbias.com How Low-Dimensional Is Intelligence? If we only trained students in math, and then assigned students best at math to learn our most important jobs, that might go pretty well. There is commitment to tribes who value truth, but not commitment to truth per se.
“People whose commitment to truth is subordinate to their commitment to tribe. And I believe this duality explains a great deal about the state of the western world.”View quoted post on X
Excellent column from @matthewsyed
Plausibly, we could see accelerating internal metrics and deccelerating external sales for quite a while.
x.com/robinhanson/st…
x.com/robinhanson/st…
Looks to me more like a one-time speedup than continuous acceleration.View quoted post on X
"people are saying that Anthropic’s latest quarterly performance shows their sales slowing" apple.news/AInrm_hi-SwWuh…
apple.news Why one of the world’s leading economists says AI doesn’t add up Jim O’Neill is the former head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, a former Tory peer, and up until recently an economic adviser to prime minister Andy Burnham. He is also unsurprised to see AI and...