@ronbodkin
A room of Chinese AI insiders on why the “3–4 months behind” was never about capability: it was distillation lag. Now the rope is being cut. I translated their discussion and checked the claims against public evidence. x.com/i/article/2118…View quoted post on X
This report shares our three subjective conclusions about risk:View quoted post on X
1. We believe that, as of Oct 2026, the pace of capability growth on well-specified tasks is likely about 2x what it was from Mar 2024 to Oct 2025. We’re highly uncertain and would not be surprised by 1.3x–3x.
Anthropic updated its S1 this morning. Notable additions re automated AI R&D and human oversight of it:
"[...] our internal estimates and our expectations regarding future models, rather than our current models, indicate that we may imminently meet our Responsible Scaling Policy’s definition of 'dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.' We have not designated any of our current models as exceeding this threshold, and we continue to assess the underlying data. We are also evaluating the implications of meeting the AI research and development capability threshold and will release further reports in the future as we set forth in our Responsible Scaling Policy."
"We are also considering additional measures, including updates to our Responsible Scaling Policy, to require human review and approval of certain decisions in our research and development processes as our models perform an increasing share of that work."
"We believe our investments in safety techniques will enable us to manage these risks and responsibly realize substantially more leverage from Claude than we do today in developing AI models. However, we do not anticipate being able to safely use Claude to fully autonomously design and build successive generations of frontier models without meaningful human supervision or understanding, if and when that becomes technically possible. Accordingly, we are considering updates to our Responsible Scaling Policy to keep humans in control of frontier model development at Anthropic."
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…View quoted post on X
We’ve updated the Model Spec, our public description of how we want our models to behave. This revision makes clearer what we want from models as they take on more autonomous work in the world and become capable of helping us in new ways. 🧵View quoted post on X
openai.com/index/updated-…
