SWE | severe-weather.eu

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@severeweatherEU

A trusted source for forecasts, long-range trends, and in-depth analysis of extreme weather worldwide.

World severe-weather.eu Joined July 2013

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SWE | severe-weather.eu @severeweatherEU Nov 4

The Polar Vortex is collapsing in November, weeks earlier than any event on record.

To see what this could mean for winter, we searched over thousands of global climate model simulations, to find winters with the same early collapse during a strong El Niño. The signal for December and January is clearly colder and snowier over parts of the United States and Europe.

But this year’s Super El Niño is pushing a very different pattern, and the latest forecasts already show the two events potentially interacting

severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/p…

www.severe-weather.eu The Polar Vortex Is Collapsing in November: What It Could Mean for Your Winter The earliest Polar Vortex collapse on record signals a cold, snowy December and January, but the Super El Niño can interfere over the United States and Canada

SWE | severe-weather.eu @severeweatherEU Oct 30

November 2026 Forecast: Latest forecast data shows the rapidly growing influence of a record Super El Niño, now actively driving the global atmosphere.

An amplified Pacific jet stream is setting up for November weather, creating an early winter-like Super El Niño setup over North America. Europe starts the month under the influence of a strong blocking high and is forecast to gradually transition into a more El Niño-driven pattern toward early Winter.

severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/s…

www.severe-weather.eu November Weather Forecast: Super El Niño Takes Control as Winter 2026/2027 Approaches weather-2026-2027-forecast-super-el-nino-signal-november-united-states-canada-jet-stream-pressure-system-anomaly-temperature-changes-record-event-fall-winter-impact

SWE | severe-weather.eu @severeweatherEU Oct 28

The Polar Vortex is now forecast to split in early November, with a high chance of an official Stratospheric Warming event with a wind reversal around November 4.

That would make this the earliest Sudden Stratospheric Warming on record, by more than 3 weeks. In our latest analysis, we look at how the event is forecast to unfold, along with early thoughts on potential weather impacts and how another such event is currently trending for mid-winter 2026/2027.

severe-weather.eu/global-weather…

www.severe-weather.eu Polar Vortex Split Forecast: The Earliest Stratospheric Warming on Record Is Coming Polar Vortex forecast shows an early November split and an earliest Stratospheric Warming event on record. Indirect weather impacts are already visible in the forecast for the United States, Canada,...

SWE | severe-weather.eu @severeweatherEU Oct 22

The Polar Vortex is already under pressure, with forecasts showing record-weak winds for early November.

To track every twist this winter, we launched a new Polar Vortex page with live ECMWF and GFS maps, updated twice a day. It also includes the latest commentary on development, the long-range Polar Vortex outlook for Winter, and what a mid-winter Sudden Stratospheric Warming could mean for the United States, Canada, and Europe.

Check it out and monitor the Polar Vortex with us. 👇

severe-weather.eu/polar-vortex-f…

SWE | severe-weather.eu @severeweatherEU Oct 20

A split Polar Vortex in early November? 👀

The latest ECMWF 00z shows two vortex cores/lobes at 10mb, over northern Eurasia and Canada, with a wave-2 ridge cutting in-between. The same pattern reaches down to 50mb, so it’s not just an upper-level feature, but it is actually an upward-propagating event from the lower levels.

Both ECMWF and GFS push 60°N/10mb winds below the historical minimum (5–11 m/s by Nov 4-5). Even the GEFS extended mean, with its usual strong-SPV bias, is trending weaker in the latest available data.

Images by our author @Recretos

#PolarVortex #Winter2026