Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Can El Niño influence inflation? sffed.us/4Abnh6I

A new Economic Letter explores the economic effects of El Niño and finds the current episode may have temporarily pushed U.S. prices higher this year.

AI investment is surging and reshaping prices. In the latest SF FedViews, EVP and Director of Research Sylvain Leduc examines how the AI buildout, energy prices, and tariffs are shaping the outlook for growth, inflation, and interest rates. sffed.us/4zzr39u

The latest Twelfth District Beige Book indicates that economic activity was broadly steady during the mid-August through September reporting period. sffed.us/beigebook

How does monetary policy affect bank lending when rate changes revalue securities? A new Economic Letter finds that how regulators treat bank securities shapes how powerfully monetary policy transmits to the broader economy. sffed.us/4ijgIsw

Do Japanese financial markets behave like U.S. markets? A new Economic Letter finds matched Japanese inflation swaps and breakeven rates are nearly identical, unlike the U.S., where liquidity premiums create a wedge between similarly-matched assets. sffed.us/4jINhBe