@socscipredict
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socialscienceprediction.org Overconfidence in people and Large Language Models Both people and LLMs completed the same task: guessing others' survey responses, in the style of Family Feud. They then estimated their own and others' performance on this task. These estimates yield... socialscienceprediction.org Fighting Poverty: International Attitudes Toward Poverty Reduction Programs Using a randomized survey experiment, we study public attitudes toward poverty reduction programmes in eight middle-income countries. This short survey will ask you to predict which types of programs... 
socialscienceprediction.org AI Memory, Confirmation Bias, and Polarization This survey asks for your predictions about an experiment on AI memory and belief updating. We recently recruited 1,000 U.S. participants for an experiment where they made predictions about Donald... socialscienceprediction.org A Behavioural Cost-of-Living Index The cost of living underpins modern welfare measurement but assumes fully rational consumers. In this study, I embed bounded rationality into classical index-number concepts, yielding a behavioural... 