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re: BeReal
when BeReal was killing it a couple years back, i got many DMs from investors i had pitched to/raised from for my first startup called one minute. it was ~identical to BeReal's mechanism (notif based photo/video submission) but from 2015.
i told them all the same thing:
"i wouldn't invest. my startup one minute died because most average consumers don't consistently have exciting moments to share every single day. and nothing tech/product wise could sustainably change the existing behavior when i tried."
its demise was not from lack of capital (raised from greylock, michael birch, and many other wonderful investors). it was entirely from the inability to preserve retention.
in the beginning, it had the same crazy rise just like BeReal. on day 1, it gained 50K+ users out of nowhere. i sucked at marketing then, but people were just clicking with the funky concept itself. it was growing on its own because when one person receives the notification, they would scream "one minute" in their class, and 10+ people would take it together.
but i wasn't sustainable. there are two types of inventions: the type that sparks and dies, and the other type that survives and thrives.
it's hard enough to catch the lightning, but you have to capture it in your bottle. only psychos like me stick with consumer social. it's not as hard as space tech ofc, yet really elusive and hard to predict.
it was hard then, it is still hard now.
when BeReal was killing it a couple years back, i got many DMs from investors i had pitched to/raised from for my first startup called one minute. it was ~identical to BeReal's mechanism (notif based photo/video submission) but from 2015.
i told them all the same thing:
"i wouldn't invest. my startup one minute died because most average consumers don't consistently have exciting moments to share every single day. and nothing tech/product wise could sustainably change the existing behavior when i tried."
its demise was not from lack of capital (raised from greylock, michael birch, and many other wonderful investors). it was entirely from the inability to preserve retention.
in the beginning, it had the same crazy rise just like BeReal. on day 1, it gained 50K+ users out of nowhere. i sucked at marketing then, but people were just clicking with the funky concept itself. it was growing on its own because when one person receives the notification, they would scream "one minute" in their class, and 10+ people would take it together.
but i wasn't sustainable. there are two types of inventions: the type that sparks and dies, and the other type that survives and thrives.
it's hard enough to catch the lightning, but you have to capture it in your bottle. only psychos like me stick with consumer social. it's not as hard as space tech ofc, yet really elusive and hard to predict.
it was hard then, it is still hard now.
for pre pmf consumer social, no VC no founder can show you the ways. none.View quoted post on X
if anyone claims they are “consumer social gurus” tell them to go eat ass.
even the instagram founders tried building one from 0 to 1 again (artifact) but folded -they were the only free agents other than myspace tom. naval tried. marc andreessen tried long ago. the list goes on including the young super novas who garnered tens of millions in downloads in matter of weeks, folded.
there is no advisor who can teach you the ways into long term pmf - i don’t mean tactical growth material. the real dna of a new david who can take on the goliaths.
there are likely less than 10 people in the world who might even have any clues, most are still running their companies: jack dorsey, mark zuck, evan spiegel, but even if all of them were to form a company together and try there is higher chance of flopping than not.
you are the best in your world view. just observe the culture out there in the wild and shoot your shots. now is the best time in decades to build in consumer social. so we might as well try.
