Stephen Wertheim

The domestic foundation of American global power is crumbling. Trump is less the cause than a symptom and an accelerant. Since the Cold War ended, the United States has pursued global primacy under an implicit bargain with the public: dominance would come cheap. Today Americans are no more willing to bear serious costs for foreign policy than they were in the 1990s. But a far more competitive world is driving up the price of upholding U.S. commitments.

No matter who wins the White House in 2028, this gap will constrain American power around the world.

In a new @CarnegieEndow paper, I trace the U.S. foreign-policy consensus from the Cold War to the present and outline three scenarios for the future:

He has definitely staged more family photo shoots.

I told @elmundoes:

“In international affairs, Trump was unpredictable and dangerous before the election, and he’ll remain unpredictable and dangerous afterward.

Trump’s lame-duck status could cut both ways. Congress will harass him, and Republicans might start to desert him. But Trump may also grow even more obsessed with establishing his legacy as a great world statesman, as he sees it. That could make him more intensely pursue peace-making efforts or more audaciously use military force — and probably both. Trump’s reaction to the election worries me; it indicates he either doesn’t understand or doesn’t care about his standing with the American people.”

elmundo.es/internacional/…

I told @el_pais: “In international affairs, Trump was unpredictable and dangerous before the election, and he’ll remain unpredictable and dangerous afterward. 

Trump’s lame-duck status could cut both ways. Congress will harass him, and Republicans might start to desert him. But Trump may also grow even more obsessed with establishing his legacy as a great world statesman, as he sees it. That could make him more intensely pursue peace-making efforts or more audaciously use military force — and probably both. Trump’s reaction to the election worries me; it indicates he either doesn’t understand or doesn’t care about his standing with the American people.”

elmundo.es/internacional/…

Not zero