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@sumsof1

Full time prediction markets trader

Joined April 2018

1.9K Following 830 Followers 885 Posts

Latest posts 5

no @sumsof1 Nov 7

Polymarket quietly increased fees again without any update on their changelog or Discord.

The fees are now higher than Kalshi.

no @sumsof1 Oct 30

Polymarket is making users sign a very broad non-disparagement agreement in order to get their money back from the hack.

It covers more than just the immediate incident.

daN’SKi Verified account @TheNotoriousSKi Oct 30

BREAKING: POLYMARKET FORCES USERS AFFECTED BY THEIR ‘SECURITY INCIDENT’ TO DOX THEMSELVES AND SIGN A LEGALLY BINDING CONTRACT BEFORE RELEASING FUNDS DESPITE SAYING EVERYONE WOULD BE MADE WHOLE

THIS CAN’T BE LEGAL, RIGHT?

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no @sumsof1 Oct 24

no @sumsof1 Aug 22

After the addition of maker fees on Kalshi combos, market makers have widened their spreads meaning that takers are bearing the cost of the fees.

Exactly what you'd expect from standard economic incidence analysis!

Line and scatter plot titled 'Market Maker Edge for Select Uncorrelated Combos Relative to Pre-Fees Mean.' The y-axis shows edge change versus the pre-fee mean, in cents per contract; the x-axis spans August 18–22, 2026. Grey dots are hourly averages of market-maker edge on Kalshi combos priced between 20 and 80 cents, combining our fills with competitors' fills. A bold purple line is the fill-weighted 24-hour rolling average with a ±1 standard error band; a solid grey line marks zero (pre-fee baseline), a dashed vertical line marks the August 20 fee launch at 03:59 UTC, and an annotation marks the post mean of +0.42 cents. Before fees, the rolling line hovers near zero with slight upward drift. After fees go live, it climbs steeply for 12–18 hours, then holds flat near +0.4 cents: competitors moved prices about 0.4 cents further from our fair value once maker fees took effect.

no @sumsof1 Aug 15

Kalshi is adding maker fees to combos (parlays).
There is some speculation that this is to squeeze out retail MMs from market making since they do not get fee rebates, so will not be able to compete on pricing with institutional MMs.

Heath @justbetjosh Aug 15

@peanut_bettor @goldenpants013

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