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The Real Truther
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Spreading truth about vaccines since 2015. SCREAM & Horror Movie fan. Space Host. “Debate bro.” Nazi Slayer. Listen to past spaces under HIGHLIGHTS 👇
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For those who believe there is no such thing as stupid questions
Have you noticed that flu season starts after the vaccines are given out?View quoted post on X
Have you seen a chart like this & wondered if it accurately represents current COVID-19 prevalence?
It doesn't.
The account creating these charts (Mike Hoerger) is a psychologist with zero expertise in infectious disease epidemiology.
His methods are not peer-reviewed.
Checked against raw data his claims don’t hold up.
Professor Michael Fuhrer (@MichaelSFuhrer) just published a deep-dive that exposes major flaws in these charts!
Main points:
👉 Every single number is based on CDC's wastewater viral activity level (WVAL). The global scientific consensus is that this can't be done.
A 2024 report by the combined National Academies of Sciences, Engineering & Medicine found that the science is not there yet to accomplish this.
👉 The WVAL is a relative measure & does not measure any quantity.
"This is a fundamental category error & makes the methodology impossible.
The WVAL is not an absolute measure of any quantity, instead it is a z-score measured relative to a baseline of the two most recent years, with baselines updated every six months.
Hence it cannot, even in principle, be used to estimate prevalence of Covid-19, or be compared across years to estimate how prevalence has changed in time."
👉 All of the numbers on the PMC Dashboard are derived from unscientific prevalence estimates.
"The estimates of excess deaths resulting from new daily/weekly infections as displayed on the PMC Dashboard are in fact adjusted to match an actuarial prediction made in 2024.
These estimates therefore do not add any information beyond what was predicted (not observed) in 2024, and the 2024 report appears to be out of date and inconsistent with more recent actuarial analysis."
In summary Mike Hoerger uses this method to estimate numbers of new infections down to the county level in the US but his entire methodology is flawed & these charts don't (and technically can't) represent reality.
If you see this chart call it out for what it is:
Misinformation.
It doesn't.
The account creating these charts (Mike Hoerger) is a psychologist with zero expertise in infectious disease epidemiology.
His methods are not peer-reviewed.
Checked against raw data his claims don’t hold up.
Professor Michael Fuhrer (@MichaelSFuhrer) just published a deep-dive that exposes major flaws in these charts!
Main points:
👉 Every single number is based on CDC's wastewater viral activity level (WVAL). The global scientific consensus is that this can't be done.
A 2024 report by the combined National Academies of Sciences, Engineering & Medicine found that the science is not there yet to accomplish this.
👉 The WVAL is a relative measure & does not measure any quantity.
"This is a fundamental category error & makes the methodology impossible.
The WVAL is not an absolute measure of any quantity, instead it is a z-score measured relative to a baseline of the two most recent years, with baselines updated every six months.
Hence it cannot, even in principle, be used to estimate prevalence of Covid-19, or be compared across years to estimate how prevalence has changed in time."
👉 All of the numbers on the PMC Dashboard are derived from unscientific prevalence estimates.
"The estimates of excess deaths resulting from new daily/weekly infections as displayed on the PMC Dashboard are in fact adjusted to match an actuarial prediction made in 2024.
These estimates therefore do not add any information beyond what was predicted (not observed) in 2024, and the 2024 report appears to be out of date and inconsistent with more recent actuarial analysis."
In summary Mike Hoerger uses this method to estimate numbers of new infections down to the county level in the US but his entire methodology is flawed & these charts don't (and technically can't) represent reality.
If you see this chart call it out for what it is:
Misinformation.
