Yet another commodity guy

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@tleilax___

Commodity Portfolio Manager - Systematic mid-frequency futures & options - Switzerland - Options - Quantitative trading - Data driven

Genève Joined February 2012

3.1K Following 54K Followers 17K Posts

Latest posts 5

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Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___ Apr 17

Commodity "Widow-Maker" Trades - A comprehensive field guide

A "widow-maker" is a trade that looks attractive on paper (mean-reverting, carry-positive, statistically cheap, or seasonally obvious) but has a long, nasty left tail driven by structural asymmetries: storage/delivery mechanics, weather, political risk, illiquidity, or short-gamma dynamics. The common thread is bounded upside, unbounded downside, and a payoff profile dominated by rare but catastrophic events.

Starting a little thread.

Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___ 4h

More like a careful application of Bayes' law on a small scenario tree, Ilia. I tend to use bank sales pitch in sentiment analysis only.

With p the probability that the US insists on regime change (15% in my assessment), each outcome is a straight line in p:

Escalation ESC = 18.0% + 41.0% × p
Ceasefire CF = 27.0% − 9.5% × p
Status quo SQ = 55.0% − 31.5% × p

At p = 15%: escalation 24.1%, ceasefire 25.6%, status quo 50.3%

That somewhat directly maps to Brent price distribution, so one can infer what probabilities is the market pricing.

Dr. Ilia Bouchouev Verified account @IliaBouchouev 20h

@tleilax___ likely the results of banks' pitches last week: no price view, play the wings, vol is reasonable
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Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___ 14h

Today, I learned that an Haitian gang leader nicknamed "General Barbecue" pleaded that "violence is not the answer" to Bukele's death squads.

Watch & learn, United Nations !

ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩 Verified account @kunley_drukpa 2d

OPINION: “Bukele must stop the violence - the lives of hundreds of violent gang members are at stake” say Haiti’s violent gang leaders

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Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___ 14h

IRGC channels refuting Al Arabiya

هنر جنگ Verified account @dolfiniran 15h

۰۰:۰۳/ ۱۹ آبان
هیچ قرار مذاکراتی میان مقام های ایرانی و طرف امریکایی نهایی نشده و تا زمانی که شروط ایران به طور کامل محقق نشود، مذاکرات آغاز نخواهد شد.
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Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___ 16h

That is what Spain did in 2022 and it works.

It displaces natural gas as the dominant marginal power price setter.

Giovanni Staunovo🛢 Verified account @staunovo 17h

Italy advanced a plan to reimburse gas-fired power plants for some fuel costs as Meloni seeks to shield households and businesses from surging energy prices ahead of next year’s election bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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