Ryan Cummings

@weakinstrument

Chief of Staff @SIEPR. PhD'ing @UW.

I research energy markets during the transition and consumer sentiment. Views my own.

Palo Alto, CA Joined March 2020

2K Following 3.3K Followers 6K Posts

Latest posts 5

Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument 2d

Even at a valuation of $1.1T, Anthropic would still need to generate annual revenues ~$300B by the end of the next 5 years, which would be >$30b what Meta is currently making.

Any valuation >$1T demands revenues keep going up and to the right; plateauing would be catastrophic.

Ed Zitron Verified account @edzitron 3d

Anthropic IPO buyers, per Bloomberg, now see the valuation at as low as $1.1 trillion

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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument 3d

1/n A little more than a year after our initial bubble call, @econJaredB and I are back in the NYT examining the natural next question after "are we in a bubble?" what happens if it pops?

Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument 3d

Also, if this is the beginning of a larger drawdown (impossible to say if so--market could rebound tomorrow, especially since a lot of selling today was likely mechanical), then we are still very much in the early innings. Dot-com drawdown was particularly long and painful.

Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument 3d

Pretty brutal day; worse than 99.5% of other days since 1929.

A cold comfort, but it's still better than Liberation Day and the worst days of 2008/the dot com bubble.

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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument 3d

Pretty brutal day; worse than 99.5% of other days since 1929.

A cold comfort, but it's still better than Liberation Day and the worst days of 2008/the dot com bubble.

Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument 3d

Democrats take back Congress in a historic wave? Stock market tanking because of fears of a bubble? A Christopher Nolan film climbing to the top of the box office?

Gen Z, welcome to 2008.