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Huge congratulations to @mikahokamoto for being the inaugural winner of the VERY POPULAR AND FUN daily estimation game “Is Mitch McConnell Dead?” This is a great honor that I am sure you will display proudly for the rest of your life on resumes, bios, framed certificates, etc.
Everyone who knows me knows that I am totally obsessed with Michael Bernstein! This blog is an exquisite explanation of Simile's "foundation model" approach to simulation; check it out!
Most big decisions are some version of a “what-if” question.View quoted post on X
What if we launched this? What if we raised the price? What if we didn’t?
At Simile, we’re building a What-If Machine to simulate those decisions before making them for real. But getting the answer right requires understanding both what people do and why they do it.
@msbernst explains what it takes to build one.
simile.com/blog/what-if-m…
Super cool Ethan!
@thsottiaux reset codex, so i spun up 64 subagents to vibecode the Atlas for ML Research
Atlas contains 225k+ @arxiv papers and counting, with 3.1M being backfilled and auto-updates daily
Trace related work, search the literature, and discover research ideas ranked by feasibilityView quoted post on X
Simile trains a simulation model. Also, we train another model that predicts the error of the simulation model (the “confidence model”). Tucked away in a secret dungeon below Mission Bay, we also have a “confidence confidence model” that predicts the error of the confidence model, but this one is saddled with a certain sinister statistical spirit that must be contained at all costs! To contain San Francisco’s crisis of confidence, Members of Technical Staff across the valley must come together and read Simile’s confidence blog post today!
Anyone can simulate the future. But the simulation only matters if it’s trustworthy.View quoted post on X
At Simile, we train two types of models: simulation models and confidence models. Our first research blog post explores the origin of our proprietary confidence model, which predicts the accuracy of our population simulations and, in turn, makes them actionable.
simile.com/blog/confidenc…