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Andy Burnham thinks making a big move on Europe this month can bring major political and economic benefits, but his cabinet and the EU are yet to be convinced.
— Burnham heads to the EPC in Dublin next week to lay the groundwork for the UK-EU summit in Brussels the week after. He hopes that by signalling a willingness to drop Labour’s red lines after the next election and having a more “upbeat” conversation, he can unlock thorny negotiations this time round on Made in Europe.
— But the shift in tone has had a mixed reception in Europe, with some EU officials saying the British approach to the negotiations hasn’t changed despite the new rhetoric. Britain is offering European students discounted rates to study at UK universities in exchange for access to the EU’s Made in Europe industrial strategy.
— While resolving that is important and everyone expects a deal to be done, of far greater interest in Westminster will be Burnham setting out options for the future relationship around the summit, likely to include rejoining, joining the single market, entering a customs union or a new bespoke customs arrangement. Aides say Burnham believes the current parameters of negotiations don’t deliver enough economic benefit to Britain and the next Labour manifesto has to be more ambitious.
— But several cabinet ministers are against backing rejoining and are trying to nudge Burnham away from that option. They’d rather he keeps it as a lifetime ambition, fearing committing to an In-Out referendum in the next parliament risks repeating the mistake of David Cameron in 2016, who believed polls that said he would win, only to lose to the Brexiteers on arguments of money, sovereignty and immigration.
— Backing joining the single market might be less controversial, bring big economic benefits and be achievable via an election rather than referendum, some ministers believe, though the problems of payments for access and free movement remain. Ultimately there is concern among ministers in Leave-voting areas that all this just gives Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage a lifeline when Labour was in the ascendancy.
— Aides and former ministers under Keir Starmer believe he would have ended up calling for a bespoke customs and security partnership at the next election. This would deliver economic gains, albeit more modest, but without the complication of uncapped immigration. Some ministers believe this would be the best option to avoid political pushback, but it’s unclear whether Burnham considers it ambitious enough, or whether the EU would be willing to allow more cherry-picking.
— One concern among UK officials is that by starting a conversation that leaves all this up in the air, the EU will just refuse to negotiate any further until the British position is involved, because it will think it can extract more from the UK in future negotiations.
— But aides say Burnham believes backing a much closer relationship with the EU will win the support of the public as well as uniting behind Labour progressive voters who might otherwise have voted LibDem or Green. Advisers also consider talking about the EU, even bringing it up in interviews as he did with @HugoGye, part of his “flood the zone” communications strategy of creating headlines on his terms rather than his opponents’.
— That’s not convinced others in cabinet. Government officials note that it was hardly ideal Burnham’s repeated public commentary on Brexit dominated headlines and interviews with cabinet ministers in the days around the budget and Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms, with headlines about cabinet disagreement distracting from major announcements. The future options he sets out at the summit will test who’s right.
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