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Fhantom

Verified account Polymarket Traders

@FhantomBets

Full time gambler, part time winner
Working on @HiveliveHQ
Joined November 2015
873 Following 3.6K Followers 2.2K Posts

Latest posts 5

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Fhantom Verified account @FhantomBets
Prediction markets just leaked the entire Spotify Wrapped a day early.

In October, prediction markets leaked the Nobel Peace Prize winner the night before the announcement. This month, the same trick leaked Spotify Wrapped’s top artists.

Just like Nobel site, The Spotify Newsroom blog is run on WordPress. If you know where to look, you can query when they upload new images to the media library. Anyone who studied previous years would know that Spotify uploads the Wrapped graphics there before the blog post going live.

So if you’re watching that feed, you can see tomorrow’s “big reveal” today, and trade on it before any public announcement.

All year, Spotify’s streaming numbers are public, so most of the prediction markets on the event were already trading above 90%, but one ranking was a big surprise.

Drake was on track to finish as the #3 artist globally, ahead of the Weeknd by over 2 billion streams. On the leaked graphic, he suddenly shows up at #4. This is likely tied to Spotify’s recent lawsuit over botted streams. It looks like they filtered out a huge chunk of Drake’s streams.

The market on Drake was trading >95% yesterday morning and then began to dump and this image hit the site and traders discovered it. I got rinsed because I assumed the streaming numbers were static. Turns out Spotify can (and did) rewrite the data.

Spotify wrapped officially drops tomorrow, but if you take a quick online web scraping course, you can figure out the whole list a day early!
26 replies 16 reposts 336 likes 378K views View on X
Fhantom Verified account @FhantomBets
Kalshi Virgin out, Kalshi Cuck in
dylanbets Verified account @dylanpredicts Sep 23
People are saying this AI-Generated @Kalshi ad is out of touch, however as someone that works in the food industry (Wendy's fry-bagger) I have been able to make additional income predicting quarterly potato prices. My only complaint is that there is no 15 minute potato market
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8 replies 0 reposts 22 likes 9.5K views View on X
Fhantom Verified account @FhantomBets
Last time Kalshi incorrectly settled a sports market, a UFC fight in April, they doubled down on the incorrect resolution, didn't claw back money from the losing side, and didn't even pay the rightful winner. So what changed in Michigan-WMU last night?
Foster Verified account @Foster Sep 6
Following the Michigan drama last night, Kalshi has now filed a regulatory notice stating trades in any combo market that had "WMU yes" as a leg are subject to cancellation

Maybe I don't have to kick myself for sitting out last night 🤷‍♂️
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9 replies 1 reposts 81 likes 25K views View on X
Fhantom Verified account @FhantomBets
?

AP: “On Kalshi, the price of a “yes” contract on Bass winning the Los Angeles mayoral election rose two cents, from about 63 cents to about 65 cents, within fifteen minutes of Median’s post.”

+ Median’s WI poll showed a 20pt Hong lead in WI. Kalshi was at 97c before she lost!
Jacki McGavick Verified account @jackikotkiewicz Aug 20
The market on Kalshi didn't move upon the release of this fabricated poll. Traders have real money on the line, so they have every incentive to scrutinize information and sniff out fake news, like this.
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1 replies 1 reposts 15 likes 1.5K views View on X
Fhantom Verified account @FhantomBets
Reading through the paid quote tweets is sad.

This account showed that Kalshi’s markets are getting manipulated for profit by artificially moving the BTC price over short time frames. That’s it.

Take note of the disinformation crew replying to this slop..

John Wang Effect
Synthdata Verified account @SynthdataCo Aug 18
1/ Synth's HFT team has found that @Kalshi’s 15-min BTC market is beginning to predict subsequent BTC moves on @binance and all other CEXs.

And strength of this predictive relationship has grown materially throughout 2026 (see image).

@Kalshi is becoming the venue for BTC price discovery on short time horizons.

🧵
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